Analysis Of India Cotton Export Policy Evolution And Market Reaction

In December 8th, the government of India once again adjusted the export policy of cotton and cotton yarn, and announced that it was no longer right. cotton And export registration of cotton yarn. As the second largest exporter of cotton in the world, how much of India's export resources will directly affect the global cotton trade pattern. Since 2010, when India abruptly announced the beginning of the ban on cotton exports and the subsequent adjustments, the international cotton price reaction has been quite strong. The following editors are going to take you back to India's cotton export policy and market reaction.

In 1 and April 19, 2010, India announced that it would suspend the cotton export registration from now on, and the specific recovery time will be announced later. The decision involves raw cotton, waste cotton, combed cotton and carded cotton and other export varieties. India's textile Ministry said it was aimed at stabilizing its soaring domestic cotton prices.

Market reaction: ICE cotton volume limit

April 20th, India The prohibition of export of cotton on the market has caused great waves in the market. The ICE futures market has been trading at a high volume. The May contract and the July contract were closed. Analysts pointed out that after the interruption of the supply of cotton in India, China and many other major cotton producers in India will have to turn to the US cotton, so the international cotton price will rise further.

At the end of 2 and September 2010, the government of India announced that it would register for export of cotton from October 1st. Shipment began in November 1st and the registration ceiling was set at 5 million 500 thousand packets, equivalent to 935 thousand tons.

Market reaction: ICE cotton limit

In September 29th, by the impact of China zhengmian futures trading, a large number of ICE market fled, and the main contract continued to decline after being closed to the limit. In addition, the India government has made it clear that the delay in India cotton exports is due to the impact of rain weather on new cotton harvest and will no longer prohibit the export of cotton, which is also the main reason for the fall in cotton prices.

3, March 5, 2012, foreign trade The website of the General Administration of communications announced that "cotton export will be banned immediately until the next directive is issued". This is the second comprehensive ban on cotton exports in India within two years.

Market reaction: ICE cotton limit

In March 5th, the India government announced that it would prohibit India cotton exports from stimulating the bull market. ICE futures rose all the way after opening, and was closed to the close at the daily limit, and the contract rose by 4.5% in May. It is understood that the export orders registered by the government have been unable to declare, and thus will have a negative impact on the enterprises that sign the India cotton export contract. Analysts say there is great uncertainty in India's cotton export policy in recent years, and the follow-up impact on the market needs further observation.

In 4 and April 30, 2012, Anand Sharma, Minister of Commerce and industry of India, said that the ban on cotton exports would be lifted and there was no quota restriction.

The India government decided to ban cotton exports in March 5th this year, but the ban was immediately opposed by farmers in India and the cotton industry. A week later, the India government was forced to lift some of its ban and adjust to allow cotton exports to be exported before the ban was issued. Since then, senior officials in India's cotton producing areas have continued to demand the lifting of the ban on cotton exports. Ladd Pavel of the Ministry of agriculture, Changsha, even sent a letter to India Prime Minister Singer, demanding that the export policy of agricultural products such as cotton, milk and sugar be reexamined.

Market reaction: ICE cotton fell sharply

In April 30th, the commodity market was generally strong, but India announced that the resumption of cotton export registration had brought heavy pressure on the cotton market. Speculative sales began to emerge and suppressed the July contract down to below 90 cents. In addition, the precipitation in favor of cotton growing in Texas is also one of the important reasons leading to the fall in cotton prices. Analysts said that the resumption of exports of cotton in India will lead to changes in the global supply pattern, and cotton prices are no longer optimistic in the long run.

In 5 and December 8, 2014, India announced that it no longer registered imports of cotton and cotton yarn.

The market reaction: the ICE cotton fell slightly in December 8th and rebounded slightly on the 9 day, just like the India policy adjustment did not have a huge impact on the market.

This year cotton production in India is expected to exceed China's largest cotton producer in the world, and export volume will probably drop by 47% to 1 million 90 thousand tons. According to China Customs data, in October this year, China's imports of cotton to India decreased by 45% compared with the same period last year, and the total import volume in 1-10 months decreased by 12%. In the face of shrinking demand in China today, in the face of intense competition from US cotton, Australian cotton and even Brazil cotton, textile mills are increasingly cautious in purchasing. It is difficult for India to rely solely on the relaxation of export policy. Traders do not need to report the annual export targets to help India cotton win the battle.