Morizawa Yoshikojun Cotton Yarn Price Trend: Inertia Reduction

This week (December 22-29), the price of cotton yarn declined this week.

J21s and J32s requirements are available.

Full cotton yarn 32 this week.

Sales fell slightly, the price trend fell, the latest offer was 21200 yuan / ton, and the J40 price of cotton yarn was also reduced.

The price trend of polyester cotton yarn has been reduced.

Polyester viscose yarn market is "temporarily stable adjustment" trend, polyester and viscose yarn 40s/2 trading volume has risen.

The overall market is stable this week. The 10s market of the cotton yarn market is mainly used for producing elastic tussah fabrics.

Pure polyester yarn prices showed a decline, of which 50s price cut 200 yuan / ton, pure polyester yarn sales situation in general, by contrast, 45S market is more smooth.

Pure polyester yarn products

The low price is mainly due to the reduction of the price of upstream raw polyester staple fiber. The market price of the specifications of 1.4D * 38mm is around 7400 yuan / ton, and this week the total price has dropped by 200 yuan / ton.

Viscose staple fiber prices this week, the trend of shock adjustment, the market center price of 11600 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the yarn market will be moderately adjusted, and the price range of cotton yarn production will be limited.

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Since the second half of this year, the international crude oil prices have been in a dilemma. The rapid recovery of supply and the slowing down of demand have led to the biggest unilateral drop in international oil prices since the financial crisis.

Although New York's oil price has been short supported by the US $55 / barrel level recently, under the situation of prominent supply and demand contradiction, the probability that oil prices will continue to fall in the late period will be greater, thus putting pressure on the whole chemical product market.

As raw material for PTA production, PX has also undergone unilateral downward trend.

Especially in the second half of the year, the concentrated supply of production has made the supply of PX in Asia rapidly increase, but the PTA enterprise operating rate remained low, and the pressure of PX oversupply began to appear.

However, although prices continue to decline, the PX business is obviously better than 3 - May.

When the processing cost of US $350 / ton was calculated, the loss of PX produced by naphtha was once more than US $100 / ton. At present, enterprises are basically hovering around the profit and loss balance line.

It can be seen that PX production enterprises are not strong enough to reduce production, and the relative surplus of supply will continue.

At the end of November, the mainstream PTA manufacturers in China unanimously announced that since the beginning of December, plant maintenance or discontinued production began. The PTA industry started to fall from 75% above the end of November to about 52% in mid December.

However, during this period, the crude oil in the outer market fell rapidly, eliminating the substantial positive effect of overhaul and shut-down. Domestic PTA spot price did not rise or fall, and it fell through the 5000 yuan / ton integer mark in December 11th.

In mid December, with the continuous restarting of maintenance devices, the operation rate of domestic PTA industry rose rapidly to about 75% of that before maintenance, and supply normalization.

At the same time, domestic demand for polyester began to turn weak, especially the operation rate of polyester filament was obviously down, and signs of insufficient demand appeared gradually.

Near the Spring Festival, the terminal textile enterprises will be closed down one after another.

Therefore, late polyester demand further fall is a big probability event.

Under the pressure of excess supply, the price of PTA will continue to bear down.

Based on the above analysis, with the downward trend of cost and oversupply, the price of PTA will continue downward.

However, at present, the price of PTA has been relatively low, and the technical backlash of crude oil may not exclude the possibility that PTA will take advantage of the rebound in crude oil.

Therefore, in terms of specific operation, it is suggested that investors take the strategy of short selling and short selling. The interval of empty entry is 4850 - 4950 yuan / ton, and the target price is 4500 yuan / ton.

Once the late price is up to 5050 - 5150 yuan / ton interval, the air order will need to stop.