Gold Market: Goldman Sachs, France, And The Bearish Forecast Has Become A Laughing Stock.

With Greece again facing political crisis, the global stock market has lost some of its growth. Under these factors, the international gold price is heading for the biggest monthly rise since June. This is a surprise to hedge fund managers who cut their bullish gold prices last week, but also made the Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale a laughing stock.

The weekly report released on Tuesday (December 30th) by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge funds and fund managers cut net gold futures and options positions by 10% in the week ending December 23rd (when gold price was 1170 US dollars / ounce), while the net short positions increased by 16% in the same period, the largest increase since mid September. The net gold position was reduced for second weeks in six weeks.

Specific data show that as of the week of December 23rd, COMEX gold speculative net multi position decreased by 10639 to 93099 hands.

　　 Gold price After dropping to $1130 / ounce for four years in November, it has picked up 6.2%. The slowdown in economic growth has prompted European and Asian central banks to introduce new monetary stimulus measures, making the most volatile gold price volatility this year rising at the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs predicted that gold prices would fall to $1050 / ounce by the end of 2014. Societe Generale last month said that as long as the price of gold did not fall above 1225-1240, gold The downward trend will remain. It is expected to drop to around $1085 in three months.

New York National Securities Corp. Chief marketing strategist Donald Selki It is believed that gold can rebound at the end of this year with these factors: 1. Regional political conflict. 2. The central bank may start buying gold. 3. Gold prices are approaching production costs. 4. China hopes to ease monetary policy to stimulate the economy.

However, gold ETP holdings are close to the lowest level since 2009.

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Valier Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist of the Potomac Research, believes that interest rate forecasts have been one of the frequent mistakes of Wall Street financiers. He believes that these people will again predict mistakes.

Valier wrote in a report released on Tuesday (December 30th), "those smart financial people once again said that the Fed will raise interest rates next year. They have been saying so for the past few years that I still do not believe them."

Here are 5 reasons why he believes the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain low interest rates.

1. a new round of crisis in Europe will prompt investors to flock to safer US Treasury bonds. Greece, for example, seems increasingly worrisome. On Monday, the Greek parliament failed to elect a new president, which means that anti - tightening parties may gain the upper hand and increase the possibility of Greek debt restructuring.

2. Russia's debt crisis is also a major reason for investing in US Treasury bonds. Further decline in oil prices has allowed Russia to default.

3. the current Fed is the most dovish session we have seen in our lifetime. They are unwilling to raise interest rates, and even if they finally start raising interest rates, the pace will be slow and gradual. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen and her colleagues have stressed that the labor market is still weak and global economic growth is slowing down.

4. lower energy prices will lower core inflation and deflation fears will continue.

5., the US federal budget deficit has continued to decline, this year will easily fall below 2.5% of GDP, while the fiscal deficit ended in September 30th will be 2.8%. Although the market demand for treasury bonds remains strong, the federal government will reduce its issuance of treasury bonds.

So in general, the US economy is without doubt being motivated. Low interest rates are like fuel for the engine. Based on the above 5 reasons, we believe that the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2015.