The Disk Is Seriously Divided, And The Gem Is Still Declining.

Today is the first trading day in 2015, the disk is seriously divided. The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities rose sharply in the oil, real estate, coal, nonferrous metals and iron and steel plates, and the Shanghai Stock Index conquered 3300 points, a nearly 5 year high. The growth enterprise market is still declining, closing down 0.47%.

Li Daxiao, chief economist of British securities, believes that the split market in 2015 opens up the risk of bubble burst in "black five" stocks (small cap stocks, sub shares, junk stocks, subject stocks and pseudo growth stocks).

Today's stock index rose 3.58%, "two barrels of oil" rare double limit, coal shares rare tide of trading, under this premise, "black five" stocks still fell sharply, indicating that this year the "black five" bubble burst probability increased.

Li Daxiao said 2015

Five major changes are facing: registration system implementation.

Practice, internationalization and improvement of two-way pactions.

In depth.

Under the five big changes, the A share market will return to a large scale financing from the stimulus of the end of last year, which is in line with the economic fundamentals.

Only truly valuable stocks can shine in the bull market, and the share price of the "black five" stocks has been significantly deviated from their own value.

At present, the "black five category" stock PE has generally reached 70 times, which is close to the level before the bubble burst of NASDAQ, Nikkei and Taiwan stock market. With the return of the A share market, such shares will inevitably burst.

Investors with low risk tolerance should stay away from "black five categories". Investors with high risk tolerance should also reduce the "black five" positions to below 1%.

Remember, embrace good stocks and stay away from "black five categories"!

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In 2014, the two financial balance moved forward, breaking through trillion yuan in December 19th, nearly double that before August 25th.

In terms of volume, margin trading accounts for a higher share of A shares.

According to statistics, in January 2, 2014, the first trading day of this year, the share of margin trading in the two cities accounted for 9.70% of A shares, and after March 28th, the proportion has never been lower than 10%.

After October 30th, the figure increased to 15%, and after November 20th, it remained stable at around 20%.

Financing plays the leading role in the A stock market.

Elephants dance may not trample on ants. The most competitive high-tech and Internet SMEs in China are still the focus of the future. The reform from new three boards to gem will ignite the flames of next year's high-tech and innovative SMEs.

Do elephants in the market dance have improved the fundamentals of most traditional cyclical businesses?

These enterprises are still facing enormous pressure to go to inventory and high debt. The efficiency of many state-owned holding enterprises is still low. But under the impact of the reform, the companies began to use the stock price to rise to solve their own difficulties, or to supplement capital, or cash in, or to introduce external shareholders.

Market volatility is strong and confidence is unstable. Margin trading has become the vane of market confidence.

After a trillion dollar breakthrough in the financing balance, the market collectively went crazy, but by December 23rd and 24, the two cities had a net outflow of financing funds for two consecutive trading days, and the financing balance had dropped to below trillion.

Considering the difference in the base of the two cities' financing balance, the net capital flow of the Shenzhen stock market appears more obvious.

Weak market, always accompanied by good news, such as the December 24th financial stocks net outflow, the evening of the central bank announced that non interbank deposits do not have to pay reserves, equivalent to stealth drop, which made the financial morning 25 morning frenzied financial stocks, Shanghai composite index exceeded 3100 points.

If there is no basic stability and cooperation, we must look at the trend of capital. There is no doubt that the invisible hand keeps monetary stability and keeps the stock market hot. This is the initial driving force for the stock market to grow significantly.

Whether the future can turn from a fake bull to a real bull market depends on whether the reform is successful, because in the long run, the market has to go back to fundamentals.

In addition to elephants, there are growing ants in the stock market who may turn into market players.