Shanghai Composite Index Is Behind The Growth Enterprise Index And Small And Medium Board Index.

By 2015, the question we need to think about is whether the big share market revolution can last. Is this year we focus on large cap stocks or small cap stocks? The author's view is that stock market history shows that no storm or stock market crash can be sustained.

The big ups and down stocks are all bad, and all the uprising is not going to last this year.

Of course, this conclusion does not mean that all small stocks are good stocks.

The three elements of the spring of riots are springs.

First, the average price earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen banking stocks is only about 5 times, much lower than that of the world average; secondly, in the beginning of Shanghai and Hong Kong's start, half a large share of Shanghai and Shenzhen A and H-share stocks are A shares discount, H-share premium; third, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has entered the bull market, the scale of margin trading has been enlarged, and the performance of securities companies has been greatly improved.

By this year, the three major driving forces will gradually disappear.

First,

Significant increase in performance, the main source of margin raising significantly.

Last December, when the total amount of financing in Shanghai and Shenzhen was over 1 trillion, it had reached 1 times the total capital of all brokerages, that is, the limit.

Next, what people see is the inspection and regulation of the management department and the restriction of the broker to the customer financing.

Through various channels into the stock market.

The scale is between trillion, and management is tolerable.

If it continues to expand, it will be subject to policy restraint.

Therefore, the volume of daily turnover of 1 trillion and 200 billion last year is likely to be the peak in the near term.

In terms of volume and volume of financing, it is difficult to continue to enlarge. The performance of securities firms is losing momentum from the perspective of the chain ratio. Second, the current P / E ratio of bank stocks is still less than half that of the international average.

But today, with the interest rate becoming more and more market-oriented, the interest rate differential of banks is decreasing. The operating cost of banks is rising. The decline of bank's performance growth rate this year is a great probability.

Under the premise that the amount of financing can not continue to expand, the banking stocks have limited space to rise. Third, it is also a very important reason. In the past few months, the A and H-share prices have become the average premium of A shares and about 30% of H-shares.

Under this parity effect, will international capital enter the A share market in large scale? Please pay close attention to the recent QFII capital and Shanghai stock financing.

In recent years, investors who believe in values have been appealing for the wrong price of blue chip stocks represented by banks.

Now, we need to add that 2015 is not a year for big stocks and small stocks.

Who has the value, who has the theme, who will adapt to the structural pformation and economic pformation in 2015, no matter big or small stocks must be chosen.

Focus on content rather than big and small issues.

On the Monday of the collapse of global commodity prices, China's cyclical resource stocks are trading up. This irrational bubble phenomenon can not be sustained.

Markets need passion and storms, but they need reason after storms.