Collective Inflation Of Cyclical Large Cap Stocks In China'S Stock Market

1, the first day after the holiday is indeed irrational.

The first day after new year's day, China

More than 20 years of rare spectacle have emerged: Petrochemical double male, 33 coal shares, 6 only color stocks, 4 real estate stocks closed up, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.58%, and Shenzhen composite index also rose 4.58%.

In response to this, many public opinions have been applauded, calling it "the bull market in the new year".

I called it "irrational inflation" in the TV program that night was irrational.

Indeed,

The rise is all market behavior, with its logic and reason.

However, depending on which sector is going up, the positive or negative effects can still be judged.

These cyclical large cap stocks belong to the object of the government's structural adjustment and overhang, and its rise obviously lacks the support of the economic plane and the fundamentals of the listed companies.

In particular, global oil has created a new low of 48 yuan per barrel on the same day, the price of commodities plunged and the European and American stock market plunged.

Therefore, the first day of the Chinese stock market cyclical stock market collective inflation, the world is incredible.

2, finally, the management is in a rush.

On the same day, the management announced the news of the 20 new shares in January.

This move is unusual: announced in advance from the previous month, announced on the first day in advance; announced by the original press conference on Friday, changed to Monday after closing; it increased from 10-11 per month to 20 (22 in real terms); from the original "timely increase of new shares", it was doubled; from the original 2 to 3 days of the week, the new shares were issued to new shares every day; 100 from the original 7 months to expand the volume of 100 people to notice in advance.

The move is not only aimed at the first day of the stock market boom, but also aimed at the heavy control actions taken by the stock market in recent 1 months.

Because from 2486 points in November 24th to 3394 points in January 5th, only 28 trading days, the market rose by 36.5% on the one hand, far exceeding the 20% increase in the Daniel market in the United States, and the period has never been adjusted and sorted out. The unilateral rising market is obviously excessive. It is Gao Ganggan financing that cannot be sustained, and it can only force the management to "throw cold water".

In addition, Shanghai and Hong Kong also include funds for short selling and short selling. The securities and Futures Commission approved the Shanghai Stock Exchange's pilot of stock options trading in February 9th. The total amount of financing for bank card dealers is limited to 1 trillion. Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is also being brewed.

3, the unilateral rise of the market to shock market is the aspiration of the people.

The biggest change of the market in the first week of the new year is that the big bull market has turned into a roller coaster market.

First, the Shanghai stock index's roller coaster ride.

Monday rose 115 points, then adjusted three days.

On Friday afternoon, banking stocks surged across the board, and insurance stocks nearly closed down. The petrochemical industry doubled its fuel consumption. The index rose 111 points in an hour and hit a new high of 3404.

But in the last half hour, the stock market also plummeted 133 points with the 4500 fingers of the index futures, and 4%, turning up or falling.

The two is the conversion of the roller coaster market between the motherboard and the two small board.

This week, the market has changed over the past month, the main board rose, the two small board fell seesaw trend, but the turns rose.

In the first week of the new year, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.57% and 2.8%, while the growth enterprise board rose 5.6%, the strongest trend.

This shows that when the stock market is riding the dust and the small cap stocks reach the ultimate goal, they begin to switch to the gem, alternately, and turn the structure into a harmonious development.

Investors of all kinds of styles and ideas can get their own opportunities and equal opportunities. They can enjoy the joy of making money in bull market.

And this is the trend of the market and the general trend of the people.

In fact, on the first day, the petrochemical double male riots, the "coal fly dance" and the index soar were already signs of the rise of the stock market and the common trick of pulling the heavyweights to cover the mainstream stocks.

On the four day after that, people saw brokerage stocks, bank shares, insurance stocks, colored shares and real estate stocks diving.

In terms of the strongest brokerage sector, apart from CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities are relatively strong, the rest of the brokerage stocks have constituted a clear head.

Look at the share price of A- H-share, A shares have a premium of 30%, and there is obviously a bubble.

If the market can not afford more capital and sweep away the chips of the head of the large cap stocks, it will be more difficult for the market to go up to a new high.

The shrinking volume may be more telling.

There are about 800000000000 on Monday and Tuesday, but only about 600000000000 after three days. Next week, when the purchase of new shares is locked in 2 trillion capital, the volume is likely to shrink to about 500000000000 or about 400000000000.

The volume is gradually reduced, which has increased the difficulty for the main force to pull up and save itself.

I believe next week the market will be lower than the probability of shocks will be higher.

5, innovate and reform.

In my opinion, if we want to break through 3478 points, 3500 points or even higher places, we need to find another way to make an issue from exogenous growth, find power from reform, and pform the golden bull and the daring ox into a reform cow.

Specifically, we hope to reform state owned enterprises.

In terms of volume, the reform of state-owned assets is large enough.

State owned enterprises account for 21% of the value of state-owned assets, local state-owned assets accounted for 28.5% of the market value, and two can pry 50 trillion of state-owned capital.

Therefore, once the state level reform guidance on state-owned assets is promulgated, the central enterprises and the local state-owned assets operation platform will be formally established, and the list of the first batch of companies to enter the state-owned assets operation platform will be released. Then, the state-owned assets reform concept stocks with the second line share as the main body will become the new hot spot of the market with the greatest strength and the strongest sustainability.

At that time, stocks and sectors were all going up to get basic support.