2015 Downstream Textile Enterprises Stock Status Low Inventory Normal

Over the past ten years, due to the rapid development of China's economy, the whole country has seen all kinds of

Demand has been strong, and demand growth is faster than supply growth.

However, the current situation is that the global supply continues to expand and the demand is shrinking rapidly in the past years, driven by China.

from

Industry, the situation is very low.

If it is not significant from the supply side alone, the supply of cotton will not necessarily be less than that in 2011, and the supply of cotton will not be too serious.

The main reason is that the changes in the environment have led to deep-seated adjustments in the lower reaches.

First, from the perspective of macro economy, adjusting the structure is the main theme of our country. With the economic downturn, the state adjustment of industrial institutions, textile and other low-end manufacturing industries will bear the brunt. Two, China's textile industry has already gone through high investment, high growth and high profit period; three, China's textile industry is obviously upgrading the industry, while the high-end textile production just uses less cotton, and the low-end textile mills with large consumption of cotton are shutting down in large areas.

For these reasons, at present

It's hard to rebound as quickly as it did in 2008.

In 2008, cotton prices quickly recovered after the cotton price hit bottom. First, the governments vigorously stimulated the demand for rapid stabilization and recovery. Two, the textile cotton consumption in China was still at its peak.

But neither of them is available.

At present, the market is low price, pessimistic mentality, traders leave the field, every link is compressed inventory, the price is in the downlink channel, spinning enterprises to maintain a low raw material inventory to prevent losses.

This is a typical bear market feature, and the bargaining power of buyers to sellers in bear market is enhanced.

At a macro disadvantage.

Under the circumstances of industrial adjustment, textile enterprises will maintain low inventory for quite a long time.

That is to say, although some of the negative aspects of cotton supply (high inventory, production increase and internal and external spread) have been gradually digested, the initiative is in the downstream.

The cotton market appeared: the pfer of pricing power to the downstream, and the low inventory of spinning enterprises became the norm.

Cotton fundamentals have seen cotton prices fall to the cost of processing plants. Buyers and sellers will have a game process. At present, there is no condition for the spot to be substantially lower than the cost. On the other hand, the spot market has not improved significantly. The processing factory is concerned about futures prices, and if there is a small profit, it will consider selling on futures.

In the longer term, the attractiveness of cotton to farmers is decreasing, and next year's domestic production reduction is a matter of great probability.

With the improvement of the macro-economy, the textile cotton is expected to improve. Although there is still room for the cotton price, it is also coming to an end. There will be more opportunities to rebound in the second half of next year.

However, at present, the quality is the fundamental factor that restricts the quality of domestic cotton. The quality of cotton represented by futures can not attract the textile mills. The problem of the decline in the quality of domestic cotton will take several years to solve. It needs to be adjusted from all aspects of the farmers, processing and trade. The good turn of the industry is not for a while. The cotton price will remain at a bottom for a long time before it is completely recovered.