Hebei Lu Yu Market: Strong Smell Of New Year

Inland banks in recent days

Prices continue to weaken, the 3128 level price is more than 14000 yuan / ton, the real estate cotton still maintains 13000 yuan / ton price; the short-term price of polyester staple fiber fluctuates slightly; the average monthly settlement price in Hebei area is 7350 yuan / ton; the viscose staple fiber market has many low price rumors, and the negotiation center has dropped even though the price is low.

In recent years, they are in a state of continuous decline, but the downstream orders are insufficient.

The lack of willingness will lead to a sluggish sales of raw materials market, and there will be no breakthroughs in procurement before the year.

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Short term higher than expected market price paction does not mean that the market is good, and India's domestic textile mills have better digestion capacity. The paction may only have India textile mills in the "test the water", of course, also related to the recent dollar appreciation of the rupee.

The author believes that the impact of CCI throwing on China's cotton market is relatively limited, and the pressure on the ICE disk has gradually been digested and diluted. The reasons are as follows:

First, the impact of CCI dumping on global cotton supply is relatively large, but the impact on spot prices of ICE and high-grade cotton is relatively limited.

首先,從近幾日CCI拋儲(chǔ)的貨源來(lái)看,因纖維長(zhǎng)度達(dá)到31mm、棉花品級(jí)比較高,而前期印度國(guó)內(nèi)高等級(jí)新花的上市量并不大,且馬值、強(qiáng)力和回潮比較大,紡C40S及以上高支紗有難度,因此紗廠短暫高價(jià)競(jìng)拍高等級(jí)國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉過(guò)渡并不為奇;其次,截止1月15日2014/15年度美棉的簽約出口量已接近90%,可供出口和選擇的SM級(jí)及以上美棉已寥寥無(wú)幾,而可以用來(lái)代替交割的澳棉更是“一票難求”,機(jī)采的巴西棉又以中低品級(jí)為主,后市ICE不排除倉(cāng)單過(guò)低而被多頭或資金逼倉(cāng)的可能,ICE哪來(lái)的下跌動(dòng)力?再次,澳大利亞及南美棉花種植面積大幅下滑已成定局(據(jù)測(cè)算,2015/16年澳棉產(chǎn)量將下滑至40多萬(wàn)噸,同比下滑50%以上),而美國(guó)、中國(guó)以及印度棉花種植面積也將快速減少,北半球減種或達(dá)到15%-20%,因此即使印度CCI國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉全部拋儲(chǔ),成交也無(wú)法彌補(bǔ)植面積下滑帶來(lái)的產(chǎn)量損失。

Two, China, India and other countries, the focus of cotton procurement is high grade lint, low grade cotton market capacity gradually atrophy, CCI country store low grade cotton or will "filming".

考慮到1100多萬(wàn)噸國(guó)儲(chǔ)和2014/15年度國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)量650萬(wàn)噸左右,加上經(jīng)濟(jì)增速全面放緩的情況下棉花消費(fèi)下滑的趨勢(shì)更加明顯,中國(guó)政府嚴(yán)控配額發(fā)放、促進(jìn)國(guó)棉消化的決心非常大,89.4萬(wàn)噸1%關(guān)稅內(nèi)棉花進(jìn)口配額將被棉企用在“刀刃”上來(lái)采購(gòu)無(wú)“三絲”高等級(jí)美棉、SM級(jí)及以上西非棉、中亞棉,留給印度棉的空間非常有限,因?yàn)橹袊?guó)有龐大的國(guó)儲(chǔ)棉和地產(chǎn)棉做后盾,而印度國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)、結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型也躍上新階段,低支紗、低檔紗、低利潤(rùn)棉紗市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)逐漸主棄,讓給其它東南亞國(guó)家或孟加拉國(guó)、非洲等國(guó)家,C32S及以上支數(shù)高配普梳、精梳紗的供應(yīng)比例大幅提高,對(duì)棉花的消費(fèi)需求調(diào)高至高品級(jí)印度棉、美棉、中亞棉或西非棉,特別是無(wú)三絲機(jī)采棉大受歡迎,另外,印度2014/15年度仍實(shí)行“籽棉最低收購(gòu)保護(hù)價(jià)”,給籽棉、皮棉價(jià)格托底,因此有關(guān)部門(mén)認(rèn)為如果CCI拋儲(chǔ)定價(jià)偏低,將對(duì)2015年的新棉

The direct impact on the cotton mill and cotton growers is a shock. It is unlikely that the government will take such a big risk.

Three, a large number of India quilts will be pushed into the international market and occupy the cotton market share of Africa, Central Asia and Pakistan. The price will also be matched to the middle and low grade cotton, and the difference between the high and low grade cotton will be enlarged. Just like January, the price difference between SM grade cotton and India cotton S-6 SM will reach 20 cents / pound respectively.

According to some foreign businessmen and institutions, the India government's "one year and one clean" state treasury operation is expected to be out of CCI cotton inventory by October, while the Chinese market can only be used to digest India cotton or save CCI. The price advantage has become the only pass that can enter the Chinese market. Therefore, 40% full tariff import has been put on the table.

Since late January, the price of domestic cotton manufacturers has been priced at 12500-12800 yuan / ton, or 40% tariff. The price of India cotton CIF is 56-58 cents / pound. At present, the price of S-6 cotton mill in India is 63 cents / pound, and the price of CIF is 68-69 cents / pound. If India cotton is not subject to the quota of China's import quota, the price of CIF should be reduced by 10 cents or pounds at least, but it will be reduced to 10 cents per pound for new cotton in 2014/15. It is "natural disaster" and unbearable. The India government and cotton enterprises will find a balance between export and national stock.