Xinjiang: Lint'S Desire To Rebound

It is understood that

The production and Construction Corps promotes the price of lint cotton, the main contract of Zhengyang cotton and the support of high cost of lint cotton. On the 28-29 day of January, the sales quotas of Xinjiang cotton were fully stabilized. Some cotton processing enterprises with better quality, "three silk" content and low capital pressure were relieved to have the willingness to raise the price of lint.

Cotton enterprises in Korla and other places indicated that due to the scarcity of high-grade cotton and Australian cotton delivered to Hong Kong before the end of February, they were significantly lower than those expected by cotton producers and traders. In addition, the acquisition and processing of real estate cotton in the Yellow River basin had entered the later stage, and the quality of seed cotton and lint declined further. The substitution effect of Xinjiang cotton was gradually weakened, while the raw material inventory of cotton mill in 1-2 was relatively low.

January 28-29, 2128 hands in the territory

The price quoted is 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and the quoted price below 13600 yuan / ton basically disappeared.

The cotton growers in Sha ya, Kuche, Xin He, Ke Ping and other places in Akesu showed that the first batch of direct subsidy was gradually distributed. Some farmers thought that the total cotton direct subsidy in 2014 would be lower than the 600 yuan / mu estimated by the farmers. Especially the farmers' income in the package area had a larger decline than that in 2012 and 2013. Some farmers in the 800-1000 yuan / mu contracted the county, township and village land even had a big loss, and the enthusiasm for planting cotton decreased.

Some cotton enterprises predict that in 2015 Akesu, Bachu and other places, the cotton planting area decreased by more than 20%, and many large growers did not purchase cotton seeds, fertilizer, plastic film, pesticides and other materials as of the end of January.

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Short term higher than expected market price paction does not mean that the market is good, and India's domestic textile mills have better digestion capacity. The paction may only have India textile mills in the "test the water", of course, also related to the recent dollar appreciation of the rupee.

The author believes that the impact of CCI throwing on China's cotton market is relatively limited, and the pressure on the ICE disk has gradually been digested and diluted. The reasons are as follows:

First, the impact of CCI dumping on global cotton supply is relatively large, but the impact on spot prices of ICE and high-grade cotton is relatively limited.

首先,從近幾日CCI拋儲的貨源來看,因纖維長度達到31mm、棉花品級比較高,而前期印度國內高等級新花的上市量并不大,且馬值、強力和回潮比較大,紡C40S及以上高支紗有難度,因此紗廠短暫高價競拍高等級國儲棉過渡并不為奇;其次,截止1月15日2014/15年度美棉的簽約出口量已接近90%,可供出口和選擇的SM級及以上美棉已寥寥無幾,而可以用來代替交割的澳棉更是“一票難求”,機采的巴西棉又以中低品級為主,后市ICE不排除倉單過低而被多頭或資金逼倉的可能,ICE哪來的下跌動力?再次,澳大利亞及南美棉花種植面積大幅下滑已成定局(據測算,2015/16年澳棉產量將下滑至40多萬噸,同比下滑50%以上),而美國、中國以及印度棉花種植面積也將快速減少,北半球減種或達到15%-20%,因此即使印度CCI國儲棉全部拋儲,成交也無法彌補植面積下滑帶來的產量損失。

Two, China, India and other countries, the focus of cotton procurement is high grade lint, low grade cotton market capacity gradually atrophy, CCI country store low grade cotton or will "filming".

考慮到1100多萬噸國儲和2014/15年度國內產量650萬噸左右,加上經濟增速全面放緩的情況下棉花消費下滑的趨勢更加明顯,中國政府嚴控配額發放、促進國棉消化的決心非常大,89.4萬噸1%關稅內棉花進口配額將被棉企用在“刀刃”上來采購無“三絲”高等級美棉、SM級及以上西非棉、中亞棉,留給印度棉的空間非常有限,因為中國有龐大的國儲棉和地產棉做后盾,而印度國內產業升級、結構轉型也躍上新階段,低支紗、低檔紗、低利潤棉紗市場已經逐漸主棄,讓給其它東南亞國家或孟加拉國、非洲等國家,C32S及以上支數高配普梳、精梳紗的供應比例大幅提高,對棉花的消費需求調高至高品級印度棉、美棉、中亞棉或西非棉,特別是無三絲機采棉大受歡迎,另外,印度2014/15年度仍實行“籽棉最低收購保護價”,給籽棉、皮棉價格托底,因此有關部門認為如果CCI拋儲定價偏低,將對2015年的新棉

The direct impact on the cotton mill and cotton growers is a shock. It is unlikely that the government will take such a big risk.

Three, a large number of India quilts will be pushed into the international market and occupy the cotton market share of Africa, Central Asia and Pakistan. The price will also be matched to the middle and low grade cotton, and the difference between the high and low grade cotton will be enlarged. Just like January, the price difference between SM grade cotton and India cotton S-6 SM will reach 20 cents / pound respectively.

According to some foreign businessmen and institutions, the India government's "one year and one clean" state treasury operation is expected to be out of CCI cotton inventory by October, while the Chinese market can only be used to digest India cotton or save CCI. The price advantage has become the only pass that can enter the Chinese market. Therefore, 40% full tariff import has been put on the table.

Since late January, the price of domestic cotton manufacturers has been priced at 12500-12800 yuan / ton, or 40% tariff. The price of India cotton CIF is 56-58 cents / pound. At present, the price of S-6 cotton mill in India is 63 cents / pound, and the price of CIF is 68-69 cents / pound. If India cotton is not subject to the quota of China's import quota, the price of CIF should be reduced by 10 cents or pounds at least, but it will be reduced to 10 cents per pound for new cotton in 2014/15. It is "natural disaster" and unbearable. The India government and cotton enterprises will find a balance between export and national stock.