What Changes Have Been Brought To Cotton Market By The Adjustment Of Cotton Policy?

With the advent of the Spring Festival, the cotton farmers went shopping season again.

Due to changes in cotton support policies and high inventory pressure, cotton farmers' interests were damaged last year, resulting in reduced cotton planting intention this year.

National cotton market monitoring system in late November 2014 cotton survey intentions nationwide showed that the 2015 cotton planting area in China was 54 million 89 thousand mu, a decrease of 9 million 151 thousand mu compared with the same period, a decrease of 14.5%.

Among them, the intention of planting cotton in the the Yellow River River Basin was 11 million 433 thousand mu, down 28.5% compared with the same period last year. The cotton planting area in Shandong, Hebei and Tianjin decreased by 30% compared with the same period last year. The cotton planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 10 million 241 thousand mu, down 19.1% compared with the same period last year, and the Hubei and Hunan declined a lot. The cotton planting area in the northwest inland area decreased by 6% compared with that of the other provinces, and Xinjiang dropped 5.5%.

The fundamental reason for the continued decline is the decline in efficiency.

There are 4 main aspects: first, low efficiency.

In recent years, the cotton wheat ratio has been lower than the normal level of 1: 8, the comparative advantage of cotton is weakening, vegetable and other horticultural crops have higher efficiency, and the output value of Mu is about 3 times that of cotton.

The two is the high cost of labor.

Cotton production has great labor intensity, strong technology, many links in field management, and time consuming.

It is estimated that there are 23 cotton per mu in a growing season, 3.5 times of wheat, 3 times of corn and 2.5 times of rice.

The cost of cotton planting continues to rise this year, resulting in some areas to reduce cotton cultivation, to grow grain and other high efficiency cash crops.

The three is the high risk of production.

Due to the long growth period of cotton, the probability of diseases and insect pests and natural disasters will increase.

Many cotton fields are aging and have poor ability to resist natural hazards.

Four, policy support is weak.

Since 2007, the state has implemented a subsidy policy for cotton varieties. In 2011, the state implemented a temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, which has played a certain role in protecting the farmers' income. However, relative to the direct subsidy of grain production, the comprehensive subsidy of agricultural subsidies, the lowest purchase price and the reward of grain producing large counties, the current cotton support policy is far from enough to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to cotton and local governments to catch cotton.

In 2014, the key step of China's cotton policy reform took place. In 2014, the most important thing was to abolish the policy of temporarily collecting and storing the market distortions, and to implement the quota subsidy policy in Xinjiang's pilot cotton target price policy in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin.

The so-called cotton target price policy is that the cotton price is mainly formed by the market, and the central government determines every year the target price that can protect the farmers' income. When the market price is lower than the target price, the state subsidize cotton farmers; when the market price is higher than the target price, no subsidy will be given.

In 2014, the target price of cotton was 19800 yuan per ton, although it was 600 yuan lower than the 20400 yuan in the previous two years, which is still 4220 yuan higher than that of the imported cotton duty paid price of 15580 yuan.

China's cotton consumption is mainly concentrated on

On cotton, with the development of chemical fibers, the proportion of cotton in cotton textile raw materials generally showed a downward trend.

Affected by the drop in demand and high inventory, the slow growth of cotton demand will suppress the formation of cotton prices. With the increase of labor costs, the high cost of cotton production will further squeeze cotton planting profit space.

Under the double extrusion of "ceiling" and "floor", this year's cotton planting intention area has been greatly reduced, and the pace of "East Cotton going west" has accelerated, which will accelerate the decline of the cotton area in the mainland, and may break the pattern of "three pillars" in the past three cotton areas.

In 2014, the state decided to cancel the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, and only started the pilot project of cotton target price subsidies in Xinjiang.

Cotton farmers in the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Valley worry that no country has been collecting and storing the city, cotton prices have declined, cotton yields are hard to predict, and the area has been reduced.

Some local governments in the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River valley cotton region have even taken the initiative to guide cotton growers to adjust their planting structure.

The Hubei provincial government has clearly proposed that this year plan to reduce 1 million mu of cotton for the development of grain and high-efficiency economic crop production.

Market analysis is widely believed that with the continuous improvement of the cotton target price policy and the support of the state to Xinjiang cotton area, China's cotton production will further concentrate on the northwest inland cotton area, and the cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin and the the Yellow River River Basin cotton area will still decrease.

The impact of the pattern is bound to the cotton seed market.

In recent years, the strong cotton seed enterprises such as Guoxin seed industry and Hubei Huimin have shifted the focus of breeding research and development to the Xinjiang area. In view of the Xinjiang cotton area's photo thermal conditions and mechanized production needs, we have carried out variety research and development, which is conducive to further promoting the superiority of Xinjiang producing areas.

At the same time, the cotton growing area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the the Yellow River River Basin will still retain certain cotton planting area. This part of the cotton field area is difficult to expand but will remain relatively stable.

There are two kinds of cotton fields in the future. One is saline alkali areas and shoal areas where soil fertility is low, field infrastructure is poor, food crops are difficult to grow, and the other is a highly efficient planting pattern, a relatively high yield per unit area and a relatively high income area.

Therefore, there is no room for development for the cotton market in the mainland after market segmentation.

Cotton seed enterprises should speed up R & D efforts against high barren and saline tolerant varieties according to their production characteristics and needs, and adapt to the requirements of specialization, mechanization and light simplification, and reduce labor intensity.

Profit.