Sun Jianbo: No Longer Recommend Large Cap Stocks.

Since 2015, bull market theory is even more noisy.

We insist on our judgement that no matter how intense the market is, its nature is also a return of valuation rather than the starting point of a new bull market.

When A50 is no longer significantly lower than the historical average valuation, the return of valuation is almost over.

This round

The coming of the market is somewhat unprepared.

Although we have been reflecting in the second half of 2014, whether the serious undervaluation of A50 should be returned.

However, it is still underestimated after the Shanghai and Hong Kong links.

We are quick to accept this round of market quotation.

I remember that in early December, at an investor conference in Jiangxi, some investors asked, "do you think the economy is bad? How can I see too much?" my answer is simple: This is a return of valuation and has nothing to do with the fundamentals.

The trigger factors of valuation return are Shanghai Hong Kong pass, interest rate cut and so on.

The customer is very real. An old gentleman asked me when to sell. The answer I gave is: sell in a month.

The reason is also very simple: in the history, the daily trading market usually lasted for more than a month, and the trading volume also dropped, and the market began to cool down.

Of course, we have to face the next question: if it is

Is there a month to sell? My answer is still selling for a month.

There are two reasons: first, the fundamentals of the economy tell us that the bull market is still far away; second, if the bull market is confirmed, it must be sold.

Let's think about it. Every bull market in history is basically confirmed by the bull market. At this time, the retail investors who are rushing in will usually have to endure.

The bottom is sold.

For example, after reaching 4000 points in 2007, the walk began to enter the field on a large scale and went straight to 6000.

Has the high point been sold yet?

When it fell to 5000, it did not sell until rebounding; when it fell to 4000, it rebounded; when it fell to 3000, it was numb; when it fell to 2000, it basically cut meat.

Our thinking benefits from Peter Lynch's inspiration.

In the darkest hour of the 1987 stock market crash, Peter Lynch found a large number of Dow Jones stocks valued at 3-5 times.

Peter Lynch, who is known for digging growth firms, has grasped the opportunity of this large cap Market.

Lynch described as follows: the future of the United States can not be without these companies; no matter what kind of pformation and innovation the economy will undergo, it will not be possible to destroy all of the Big Mac companies in Dow Jones, and only part of the industry or part of the companies will be affected.

The same is true of A50 in the past two years.

Especially when the valuation of bank shares has been lower than 5 times for a long time, we need to reflect: do not need these banks in the future? If necessary, they should have a relatively reasonable valuation.

Entering 2015, when the 3300 points of the composite index station rose, we thought that the return of valuation was basically in place.

Entering 2015, our keynote is: the return of valuation is basically over, and the market returns to the fundamentals and growth of performance.

That being the case, for those who have risen due to the return of valuations, if they go up again, they should cash in.