Profit Factors And Negative Factors In Cotton Market

1, in 2014, China's cotton production decreased substantially.

The Bureau's data is 6 million 161 thousand tons, down 2.2% from the same period.

But from the data of China Cotton Association, in 2013, the total output of the country was 7 million 420 thousand tons, but in 2014 it was about 6 million 500 thousand tons, or 12.4%.

2, a slight increase in demand.

Recently, at a cotton exchange conference, some experts gave about 7 million 500 thousand tons of cotton consumption in 2014/15, a slight increase from the previous year.

Even a small number of operators believe that the consumption volume is 8 million 400 thousand tonnes in the current year, although most of the industry has negated it, but the market's understanding of cotton consumption improvement is consistent.

3. In 2015, China had a tariff of 894 thousand tons, 1%.

In addition, the principle no longer extends other quotas.

Enterprises with insufficient quotas can only get 40% full customs clearance outside the cotton market, and their advantage of price difference is no longer there.

4, in January 27th, India CCI began to compete, and on the 29 day launched two batches of Shankar-6 cotton, the lowest bid price was 31500 rupee /candy, about 65-66 cents.

Shankar-6 is the most concerned breed of Chinese enterprises. This price is slightly higher than Shankar-6's domestic price of 63 cents / pound, compared with export to port.

66-69 cents / pound has little room to operate.

Therefore, India cotton has no advantage of price difference for domestic cotton.

Two, negative factors:

1, 11 million tons of national cotton reserves, even if China does not produce one or two cotton in two years, the state reserve stock is also sufficient to support.

That discourages market speculators.

When foreign cotton reserves are thrown and what price is thrown, it is also the biggest uncertainty factor in the market.

2, since 2014, many domestic textile and garment enterprises boss walked, the boss ran the road, wages were not returned, migrant workers blocking the government doorway to pay a lot of news.

According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics and China Customs, in 2014, the total revenue of 38 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 6 trillion and 722 billion 10 million yuan, an increase of 6.8% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate was 4.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The total profit was 3662.7 billion yuan, up 6.1% over the same period last year, lower than 9.7 percentage points of the same period last year.

It is expected that the days of spinning enterprises in 2015 will still be tough.

3, most of the textile enterprises in this year "follow suit with buy", which results in slow spot sale of upstream ginning plants, and does not rule out the possibility of "low price" throwing goods after the Spring Festival.

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The price of cotton has gone to the end.

There are three reasons why:

First, Zheng cotton futures basically stabilized at 13000 yuan / ton line.

Yesterday (2), Zheng cotton main 1505 contract closed 13085 yuan / ton, down 65 yuan / ton.

Far month 1509 closed 13490 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton.

These days, Zheng cotton fluctuates around the range of 13000 yuan / ton, indicating that the bottom line of the industry is becoming more and more consistent.

Second, as of 2, Xinjiang cotton platform delivery price 3128 level in 13500-13600 yuan / ton line, the mainland warehouse delivery price of 14200-14300 yuan / ton, has been stabilized.

According to the Xinjiang ginning factory, the 3128 level cost is 14000 yuan / ton, that is to say, the current selling price is inverted 400-500 yuan / ton with the cost.

It is said that the factory price of 3128 cotton picking hand picked by some Xinjiang Corps is still set at 14400-14500 yuan / ton, which is 1000 yuan / ton higher than the market price, and has formed a strong support for the market.

Third, from the perspective of the operation of the mainland textile enterprises, most of the spinning profits have been negative since 2014 November.

The profits of some enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu are over 1000 yuan / ton, and some of them are over 2000 yuan / ton.

Pressure to lower the cost of raw materials to reduce costs has been weakened.