Last Year, China'S Foreign Trade Did Not Balance The Balance Of Payments.

According to the data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange in February 3rd, China's balance of payments surplus was 213 billion 800 million US dollars last year, the deficit of capital and financial items was US $96 billion, and foreign exchange reserve assets increased by US $118 billion 800 million. This situation shows that there is no double surplus in 2014.

The balance between capital and financial items from the surplus in 2013 has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. It is reported that after 2012, capital and financial items once again showed an annual deficit. External assets Slower growth and more balanced international payments.

Insiders said that because China is actively promoting the construction of "one belt and one road" to support enterprises' "going out", the scale of foreign investment has gradually increased, and the annual deficit of capital and financial items has not exceeded market expectations, and it can alleviate the pressure of "double surplus" of China's long term balance of payments.

Societe Generale Securities analyst Wang Han believes that China A large number of international investment positions, but compared with developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan, the income is low, because the proportion of foreign reserves in the international investment position is too large, and the proportion of private investment such as direct investment and securities investment is relatively low. The government has also begun to realize the burden brought by a large number of foreign reserves, trying to slow down the accumulation of foreign reserves and encourage capital to "go out". These measures will increase the proportion of direct investment and other positions.

Current account in 2014 surplus The year-on-year increase was 16.9% higher than the US $182 billion 800 million in 2013. The larger scale current account surplus will support the RMB exchange rate. In the regular terms, the surplus of goods trade was 471 billion 900 million US dollars, an increase of 31% over the same period last year. In the case of the slowdown in import and export growth last year, relatively fast export growth still promoted a steady rise in the trade surplus in goods; the deficit in service trade was $198 billion 100 million, an increase of 59% over the same period last year, and the rapid growth in demand for services such as overseas travel was the main reason. In 2014, the deficit of tourism projects exceeded 100 billion US dollars, a marked increase compared to 76 billion 900 million US dollars in 2013.

The managing director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, Mr. Guan Qing you, predicts that the pressure of RMB depreciation will ease in the future. From the current account, the decline in commodity prices will continue to improve our terms of trade. From the perspective of capital account, considering that central banks will continue to "drain" this year, China's relatively high risk free interest rates and stable economic growth prospects mean that RMB assets will still be sought after, and the trade deficit between capital and financial items will be narrowed.

In addition, the industry believes that the central bank will gradually withdraw from its intervention in the foreign exchange market because of the burden brought about by large-scale external storage. The correlation between foreign exchange and current account surplus will be significantly reduced, and foreign reserves will not have high growth. Liquidity will be more dependent on the initiative of the central bank.