Will The A Share Trigger The Second Wave Of Growth?

On the evening of February 4th, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points since February 5, 2015. At the same time, some agricultural firms have dropped 0.5 percentage points and the Agricultural Development Bank has dropped 4 percentage points. According to the preliminary forecast, the central bank will be able to release more than 650 billion yuan liquidity.

In view of this reduction, there are actually many factors that have a combined effect.

First, the recent rapid devaluation of the renminbi has accelerated the massive outflow of capital and forced the central bank to introduce a policy of lowering the benchmark.

Second, domestic economic data The continued weakness helped boost expectations. Among them, from the recently released HSBC PMI data analysis in January, HSBC's manufacturing PMI in January reached a final value of 49.7, and it was lower than the watershed of prosperity and decline for second consecutive months. This shows that the downward pressure on the economy and the poor start of the economy also created conditions for the reduction.

Third, the effect of Spring Festival holiday and the expectation of liquidity tension have also accelerated the pace of lowering the accuracy to some extent. According to statistics, with the coming of the second batch of new shares during the year, the future market will need to freeze huge purchase funds. market The liquidity brings certain uncertainty. At the same time, near the Spring Festival holiday, under the effect of the long holiday, it also pave the way for the central bank's policy of reducing the amount of money.

The author thinks that Central bank reduction The landing of the policy will also bring new anticipation to the market.

In the first place, the central bank reduces the pressure of capital outflow caused by the depreciation of the RMB by reducing the liquidity pressure by lowering the quota. To some extent, it adjusts the liquidity of the market by reducing the market liquidity, improves the financing demand of the real economy more or less, and speeds up the reduction of the cost of social financing.

However, on the whole, the central bank meets the expectations of the market, and the market does not need to make excessive interpretation. From a short-term point of view, the central bank will have a certain boost to the stock market, but with the freezing of new shares and the constraints of the two financial constraints, it is difficult for the policy to reduce the stock market to a sharp rise in the previous round. In other words, the macro significance of the macro level is far greater than the micro meaning. In essence, it still can not become an important basis for the two surge of the stock market.

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In February 4th, the first spring festival in the twenty-four solar terms also ushered in the first major action of monetary policy this year.

On the evening of the night, the people's Bank of China announced that the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions should be reduced by 0.5 percentage points since February 5th. At the same time, the proportion of small and micro enterprises loans to urban commercial banks and non County commercial banks to reduce the deposit reserve rate is 0.5 percentage points, which will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of the Agricultural Development Bank of China by 4 percentage points.

This is the first comprehensive reduction since May 18, 2012. After the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, large financial institutions and small and medium-sized financial institutions will carry out the 19.5% and 16% deposit rates respectively.