Bull Market Midway Concussion 3100 Points Or New Wave

The recent concussion is a concussion in the middle of the bull market, which will remain at 3100-3400 points in a large area, and the overall risk is rather limited.

On the contrary, once the adjustment is in place, the new main wave will start again.

Then, when will the new main wave rise? We can look at the following three aspects: first, from the point of view of time, the average time of 2006 and 2007 midrange shocks is 33 trading days, and the current round of adjustment is 18 trading days until Friday, so the short term will continue, but it will be closer to the new main wave.

Second, from the point of view of the magnitude, the second adjustment of the low point is very difficult to fall below the first adjustment point.

It should stop at the top of 3095 points, that is to say, there is a maximum of 100 points down, unless there is a major sudden negative impact.

Third, the volume should be phased. The volume of Shanghai securities trading should be below 250 billion yuan or even 200 billion yuan.

Regarding the issue of whether the blue chip valuation repair market represented by financial stocks will be restarted, we believe that on the one hand, the valuation of blue chips is not high, and funds still dare to intervene. On the other hand, the stock index is going up in a big way, and blue chips represented by finance are the backbone of the new wave.

In the short term, these sectors are still in a state of concussion, and it is likely that there will be a policy of lowering interest rates and easing interest rates before and after the Spring Festival.

At the same time, the gem and small and medium-sized boards have also entered the adjustment after the new high. We have always stressed the need to be cautious.

Medium and small board index large cycle bottom shape, medium term has been good, so the opportunity in small and medium-sized board is more worthy of attention.

The stock index will soon be volatile, and some small cap stocks will still exist.

Benefiting from falling oil prices, chemical stocks can be focused in the short term.

Operation, next week if we continue to adjust, we can consider taking part in bargain chips.

In the new main wave, the opportunities for heavyweights are more obvious, so it is suggested that heavy positions be placed in heavy positions.

Next week, we will continue to focus on the theme of agricultural shares and reform of state-owned enterprises.

Starting from a relatively high level of policy themes, such as nuclear power, PPP projects, SOE reform and so on.

The selling point can be taken on the left side, earning 5% or breaking the 5 day moving average.

Although the news of reducing leverage continues to hit the market, but

We can see that we need to control and reduce risks and do not want to fall sharply.

At present, market confidence is fragile and differentiation is obvious. Once there is a stir, it is easy to have a concussion.

Technically,

It is suspected to build three heads. If the K-line three are broken, they will evolve to three.

On the average, if the 20 day line is the center line, the big index is the shock type. In the four forms, it is the most difficult operation.

Using the technology of Valley adjustment, the Shanghai Stock Index central line has been revised to 3204 on the 34 EMA. This line is a strong support line formed after the fierce competition between the two sides of the market. On Friday, Shanghai Stock Index almost stepped back on this line. It belongs to the five main buying points of the front line trader.

Next week's big index has a great probability of oscillation between the horizontal trend line and the convergence triangle built by the 34 lines. On the contrary, the Shanghai stock index will fall to a new level after falling below the 34 line. The strongest support is near the 2955 place of the 60 EMA.

In fact, "5. 30" is only the index to the 60 day line, and when the management does not introduce a more repressive policy, investors need not panic.

From the Shanghai index line chart, following the rapid rise of over 20% last month, the market was in turmoil this month, basically out of the cross star.

In December 2006 and January 2007, the same trend rose, then crossed the star and continued the bull market.

After all, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the redistribution of household wealth have become the driving force behind the strong support of the market.

In the short-term market entry into the stock capital game state, the stock uncertainty increases and the operation difficulty increases, investors should actively tap new hot topics in the concussion: first, we must start from the policy themes with higher certainty, such as nuclear power, PPP projects, SOE reform, etc., as the national two sessions approaching, we are expected to ferment ahead of time, and it is worth digging ahead.

Two, after a period of concussion, with the continuous exchange of weight capital funds, it is expected that the new hot line will gradually emerge.

Three, it is technically the key to choose the underlying stocks that have broken through the central line after the stock price has plummeted. After breaking off the bottom area, the stock price will break through the underlying stock of the important mountain peaks during the course of the rise, or the stock price will go back to the underlying stock of the important valley line in the rising trend.

The selling point can be taken on the left side, earning 5% or breaking the 5 day moving average.

If we buy a mistake, break the line and stop the loss, and calculate the ratio of risk and return to base our capital market.

Sun Tzu's art of war is cloudy: virtual is real, but real is virtual. The strategy of trading in the current capital market is more appropriate.