Tian Hongliang: Is The Dollar Soaring?

Despite the weak economic data released yesterday, the market is confident that the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase will be supported by the non-agricultural expectations that will be announced this week.

On the basic level, the US consumer spending dropped by 0.2% in January, the personal income increased by 0.3%, the personal savings rate increased from 5% to 5.5%, and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation index decreased by 0.5%.

Economists surveyed by MW have expected an increase of 0.4% in personal income and 0.1% in consumer spending.

The ISM report showed that in February, the ISM manufacturing index fell from 53.5% in January to 52.9%.

The euro strengthened against the dollar yesterday, as economic data improved slightly before the ECB began implementing quantitative easing this week.

The ECB will meet in Cyprus on Wednesday and Thursday, and the market is also concerned about the interest rate meetings of several other central banks this week.

The ECB is expected to announce more details of its debt purchase plan at a press conference on Thursday.

Data showed that the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry in Germany and Italy improved last month. In February, the initial valuation of euro zone inflation decreased somewhat, suggesting that the risk of stagnation in the euro area economy is gradually subsiding, which helps to boost the euro.

The US dollar rose early in Asia trading session, after the central bank announced its interest rate cut on Saturday, and resumed its gains after the announcement of mixed US manufacturing and construction spending data.

The long-term trend of the US dollar is upward, but consolidation is ongoing.

The US dollar has been rising steadily, mainly because the US economic outlook is stronger than other major economies, and the buyers of Treasuries expect the FED to start soon.

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The sooner the Fed will raise interest rates, the stronger the US dollar will be in the near term.

Technically, the dollar is maintained.

The strong characteristics are obvious, but there is still some hesitation in facing the resistance of the 95.53 high points.

More than 95 of the withdrawal was supported yesterday, which means that the US dollar may continue to break through the previous high.

Before the US dollar index did not break through 95.80 - 96, we should watch more dollars and prevent the possibility of a dollar falling.

The US dollar index 5, 10, 20 day average line maintains the multi head arrangement, provides the strong support for the exchange rate, the short line falls below 95 integer passes is not easy.

We can wait today.

Rising to about 95.60 - 95.65 short selling, although this is against the trend of trading, but can be a small warehouse test, followed by stop loss can be.

Today, the resistance of the US dollar index rises from 95.60 to 95.65, and the short-term resistance is between 95.75 and 95.80.

The dollar index today's support for the callback is between 95.30 and 95.35, and the short-term support is between 95.15 and 95.20.

Important data and information will be released on Thursday and Friday, and the market will fluctuate considerably.

Under the background of many dollars, we must be careful not to be blindly optimistic.

The US dollar is mainly short for short selling today, breaking the stops and stopping the losses. If there are more than 30 profit points, we will set a good stop to win. Before we open the market, we will withdraw all the outstanding pactions.

This strategy is suitable for margin and can be taken as a reference.

The US dollar index can be sold at the upper limit of the 95.65----95.15 interval, effectively breaking 15 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Euro / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 1.1230--1.1150 interval, effectively break 35 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

GBP / USD: it can be bought at the lower limit of the 1.5410---1.5320 interval, effectively breaking the 40 point stop loss, and the target is at the upper limit of the interval.

USD / CHF: you can buy at the lower limit of the 0.9620----0.9550 interval, effectively break 35 points, stop the loss, and aim at the upper limit of the interval.

USD / JPY: it can be bought at the lower limit of the 120.40----119.80 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the upper limit of the interval.

Australian dollar / US dollar: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 0.7800----0.7740 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / Canadian Dollar: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 1.2580----1.2480 interval, effectively breaking 40 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Gold: it can be sold at the upper limit of 1212 - 1193, effectively breaking the position of $6, and the target is in the lower limit of the interval.

Silver: it can be sold at the upper limit of 16.55 - 16.05, effectively breaking the position of 0.20 US dollars, and the target is in the lower limit of the interval.