Lu Commissar: Traditional Wisdom, Capital Flight Strategy And Policy Misjudgement

Traditional wisdom believes that capital flight must be "high reported, import less reported export deficit", but this is not consistent with the current situation of export exceeding expected surplus. In fact, after the cancellation of compulsory exchange settlement, there is no need for surplus. Settlement of exchange Or repatriation, capital flight only need to import and export, there is a difference in the balance, the surplus as a deficit in disguised form get the "real trade background" this "foreign exchange index", you can escape. Moreover, the central and local governments are making steady efforts to export steadily. The more exports they have, the more tax rebates they can bring. Local governments also have the false name of achieving economic goals and mutual benefits.

Thus, capital account Open traditional wisdom and exchange rate overestimation of traditional wisdom suggest that opening up current account and gradually opening capital account is a healthy order. But the result is that more and more capital items are wearing out of the current account's clothing, resulting in a continuous high surplus. exchange rate It should also continue to appreciate and give more pressure to other countries, resulting in overestimation.

If capital controls exist in name only, in the face of rigid exchange rates, the amount of reserves is like the size of the banquet: the first thing to drink is to spit up, and then to spit after drinking. Therefore, a huge reserve is only a capital to buy time, rather than relying on it.

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Since the end of last July, the bull market of the A share market has come quietly. However, by the end of 2014, the bull market was mainly shown in the bull market of blue chips, especially after the central bank cut interest rates. During this period, the performance of the whole gem was poor. It was not until after 2015 that the gem really regained its vitality and continued to create new heights with the cooperation of volume.

Of course, as the gem index rises, its average price earnings ratio has also been elevated. As of March 5th, the average price earnings ratio of 421 listed companies on GEM was 82.5 times. Despite the overall performance of the gem last year, the hidden risk in its high average price earnings ratio is self-evident. Therefore, for the GEM market this year's soaring market, market row "salute" is actually very normal, worried about the bubble burst is not without reason.

If starting from 585.44 points in December 4, 2012, gem has been in the bull market for more than two years, and its performance is far stronger than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities. In particular, in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market for many years, "bear bully global" farce, the gem bull market is not only the only bright spot in the A share market, but also brings hope to many investors. I think this is the most important thing. In this sense, small cap stocks, sub shares, junk stocks, theme stocks and pseudo growth stocks can be classified as "black five categories" and worry about the future market of gem. As long as we can get profits from it, whether it is "black five" stocks or emerging industry stocks, they are good stocks. If the wealth effects of individual stocks are like blue chips a few years ago, even if they have investment value, what does it mean to invest or lose money?

In the stock market, profit is the absolute principle (the premise is not illegal or illegal), which is the "hidden rules" of securities investment. Regulators have warned investors not to stir up "small", stir up "new" or "bad", but the huge profits that many "Niu San" get from junk stocks indicate that even the poor listed companies have the chance to make you get rich overnight.

It is also biased to classify small cap stocks and sub shares into "black five categories". In all listed companies that are listed, though there is not much to achieve bigger and stronger through the capital market, there are also many "crows changing Phoenix". Look at the current small and medium-sized boards. The listed companies listed on that year are basically small cap stocks, which are quite different now. For example, the total share capital of the "new eight stocks" of small and medium-sized boards has exceeded 1 billion shares. The capital stock of these listed companies is no longer the capital stock of that year. The scale is no longer the size of that year, and the company is not the same company.

I believe that the so-called "black five" will not be misleading to the market, and the real market misleading will be the institution represented by the securities company, after all, it has greater market influence. For example, during the last bull market, when the stock index climbed 5000 peaks, domestic brokerages shouted eight thousand points or even ten thousand points, and brokerages shouted the so-called "bull market second half". The losses of those who believed in the truth were understandable. There are also strategic reports every year, and value investment analysis reports issued by IPO, almost all like "poison".

There is no market that rises or falls, and there is no stock that only falls. Whether it is "black five" or blue chips, we should not ignore the risk of investment.