The Renminbi Dropped Slightly: Ignoring The US Dollar Skyrocketing Market

China's RMB against the US dollar on Thursday (March 12th) dropped slightly in early trading, with a slight weakening in the middle price and a low opening for the sixth consecutive day. The RMB exchange rate remained stable during the recent two sessions, and the narrow trading range was in line with expectations, but it was in sharp contrast to the strong upside of the US dollar index.

Policy orientation is the most important factor in the current RMB exchange rate market. Traders said that at the time of the two sessions, there has been "big stability" in the market, which directly suppressed the renminbi. Depreciate space It also moderated the downward trend of the renminbi in the offshore market.

Another trader pointed out that due to the shore Spot market The devaluation of the devaluation space has been suppressed, and offshore devaluation expectations have also been affected. This is also why offshore Hongkong. RMB The trend is relatively stable. As long as the difference between the shore and the shore is within 100 points, the opportunity to cross the market arbitrage is not large.

Another joint-stock bank trader pointed out that now that the two sessions will be over, the market may have greater volatility and trading opportunities.

The US dollar index rose to 100 on Thursday, the first time since April 2003, which is equivalent to less than half a month in March, and the US dollar index has risen by nearly 5%.

In the global market, the euro was hovering at a slightly higher than 12 year low in early trading on Thursday. This week, the European central bank suffered a heavy setback as the European Central Bank launched the euro 1 trillion debt purchase plan.

At 12:02 Beijing time, the US dollar was RMB 6.2631 yuan against the yuan, and it received 6.2623 yuan on the previous day. Today, the median price of US dollar to RMB is 6.1617 yuan, and the middle price of the previous day is 6.1597 yuan.

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Returning to the US dollar exchange rate arrangement is not necessary, nor is it consistent with the established direction of exchange rate marketization. The marketization reform of RMB exchange rate is one of the established contents of China's comprehensive deepening reform, and it is one of the conditions to give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources. Of course, for a currency such as our foreign exchange market is still not perfect and the price elasticity of exchange rate is not enough, the exchange rate marketization should be pushed forward step by step, and it needs to undergo a relatively long process.

Compared with the previous period, since the beginning of last year, the fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar has been more pronounced, and the fluctuation has really fluctuated up to 3.7%. I predict that this year's wave is expected to reach 5%, the low point has been lower than last year's low point, the personal estimate is about 6.30 yuan / dollar, the high point is also likely to be higher than last year's high point, breaking 6 is not impossible.

The current market situation once again reminds us that it is more important than RMB exchange rate fluctuations to accelerate the construction of RMB foreign exchange market. For the post open countries, because the market reform is often relatively slow, coupled with the smaller scale of the domestic economy, it is difficult to have a scale, breadth and price elasticity of the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the exchange rate expectations in the market tend to be one-sided, and the exchange rate of the local currency has plummeted and plummeted, which will have a serious adverse impact on the domestic economy.