A Real Estate Developer's Advice: Young People Should Stop Lending To Buy A House!

This article seems quite different in the current environment.

China is a country that has been influenced by the life model of "first to become a family and then to establish a career" for thousands of years. Having a family has a house, becoming a prerequisite for the establishment of a marriage. Someone laughs at it: it's the mother-in-law of China. Housing prices in China ! indeed, as real estate people, we really appreciate those mother-in-law.

Then, as a Chinese youth, he reached the age of 25 when he got married. Now I am in charge of several sales offices, marriage room gradually become a mainstream. 99.99% of buying a house needs mortgage, and 90% of the house is 25-30 years old. According to my statistics, only 5% of them are dependent on their strength and do not need the support of their families to buy a house. There are, of course, some two generation rich families who set up several sets of wedding houses for him when he was several years old. After all, we should not envy, envy, go to the wall and die.

Let me give you an example: I have a villa project, a director of a bureau, bought 2 sets for his son and mistress. Villa One as a wedding room, the other as a love nest. I thought he did not have 20 children and 18 of his children. Later, when his little daughter-in-law (divorced) remarried, he found that his son had just had a full moon. He was very happy. He bought a villa to celebrate. I was worried that his son would be too small to do the loan. The director was thinking for us. The whole set of 2 sets was 9 million. The civil servants knew it was low key and gave us financial transfer. There was no cash in Buick's car.

Why should the poor two generation, the two generation, the two generation, or ordinary youth why not hurry to buy a house?

As a real estate practitioner, I have a deeper understanding of real estate. I want to express my views in a truthful way, to give a hint of fresh air to the young people who have troubled the great shadow of the house. Actually, I have studied neighbouring countries. Are Japanese youths afraid of mother-in-law? WeChat search flxsm1024 plus attention, you will be grateful to me, believe me, my research found that Japanese youth marriage to buy a house is also very expensive, Japan is tiny, the population density is very big, the housing price is relatively high (Tokyo middle house price is about 40 thousand yuan), Japanese youth is not anxious to buy a house. Japanese young people are afraid to buy a house to restrict their chances of enjoying a better life in other cities, and are also less conducive to their career development. House slave 。 Of course, it is only a reason that has been circulating in society for a long time. A deeply rooted tradition. Whoever has a house, who is a young man, who has no room, is a bad child. Today, Xiao Ni's evaluation standard for young people is the same.

　 Besides, there are 2 other reasons for young people to buy houses in fear and fear.

First of all, I would like to say that most of our citizens are brainwashed by our real estate businessmen and the media. Now they do not buy them, they will rise later. Housing prices will always rise faster than wages. Now I don't buy it, I'm afraid I can't afford it any more.

Is this really the case?

I do not have the data of those so-called experts. Before I use the facts of the trade to refute this fallacy, I want to start with a few examples. It is very difficult for the post-80s to understand something before 80 unless they read or consult with the elderly. When I was studying the economic phenomenon in the initial stage of reform and opening up, I found a very interesting phenomenon, that is, the secret of media opinion guiding the economy.

Case 1: in 70s, when the telephone was just rising, there was a public opinion: upstairs and downstairs, electric telephone is a symbol of affluent people and a sign of identity. At that time, there was a telephone that could be deified to the level of leading cadres. So in Shanghai, even if there is a telephone number more than 5000, there are many people queuing up to buy it. What is the identity, the face, the trend, the media guide. Now the plane is 5000 yuan? Jokes, not long ago, the mobile went to the house and sent a free one to my mother. My mother still has many phone calls at home. Throw away.

Case two: three marriages. The three major items are bicycles, watches and sewing machines. In 80s, the "three big pieces" when they got married turned into fridge, color TV and washing machines. By 90s, the "three big pieces" had gone up and turned into computers, air conditioners and motorcycles. Nowadays, the "three big pieces" of marriage are defaults to "three big sons", that is, "houses, cars and tickets". The development of commodity industry in every era is guided by public opinion. Do not guide who desperately buy color TV, washing machines, do not guide these mass production products to whom? How can these enterprises develop and how can the country increase GDP? Have you ever thought that expensive telephone, fridge, color TV are not worth mentioning now? What are the reasons for this deep level?

I think there is no need for supply and demand. When an entire country craving for something, it is scarce for some time. When people scramble for business, businessmen poured into the industry, and speculators scrambled it. In 70s, bicycles were large, and who was the NB figure, who can not afford to buy bicycles at that time, then they could not afford to buy bicycles.

What do modern people start to store? Houses. The state has made great efforts to develop real estate. Now the public opinion is that marriage must have a house. Everyone is grabbing this stuff. The media makes this house scarce. The price of building houses has risen, rising hundreds of thousands a month.

From an economic point of view, when demand is aroused, houses will rise wildly in a period of time, and speculation in the middle of speculation will make houses irrational. More people, money, hot money poured into this industry to go crazy to buy land to build a house. Many developers I contacted had made some money in other industries, and saw that the self made economy did not earn a lot of money in a year. Those who make flour, sell fish, make shoes, stir up vegetables, rush into this industry, buy wild land crazily, and build houses crazily. So there is a problem. Everyone is building a house. What will happen when the total amount of the house exceeds the demand of the buyers?

If not, how many apartments are there in the country? How many units will be built in the next 5 years?

Now there are many single children in the society, and 10 years later. The simplest estimate is: Children's parents, a suite, wife's parents, a suite, 2 small and 1 suites. It's fairly balanced. After 10 years, the parents of both parents will die, so this family will have 3 suites. In 10 years, will the parents buy their children's apartments again? Will the house go up forever? Do you have a house to live in, a few people to buy a house, a house to go up? Sell it to a ghost?

Therefore, the theory of house rising is absolutely fallacy. According to the crazy speed now, it will not take 20 years, or even 15 years, that the house will be tragedies.

To what extent is the urbanization process? Beijing is pouring in, Ji'nan is pouring in, and Dongying is flooding in?

The national plan for 11th Five-Year: one of them is to develop a new socialist countryside. In 2009, the pilot project in Shandong was launched. New rural construction was carried out, farmers' income increased, and rural urbanization. In the 3-5 years, some farmers could live in buildings and greatly stabilize the rise of four cities. Rural urbanization. This is also a part of urbanization, not 1 billion 200 million people in the whole country. 1 billion people are a second tier city, that is, urbanization. It is also not available in the United States. Farmers will always be the majority, and will build new countryside in the future. Traditional farmers will gradually decrease. Instead, it is the increase of new farmers, land, township enterprises, buildings, and what to do in Beijing?

In addition, the national plan for 12th Five-Year proposed that 6 million sets of affordable housing and low rent housing should be built in the first and second tier cities every year. In the next 5 years, 30 million units will be built to solve the needs of one hundred million new farmers who are pouring into cities. In addition, according to my 5 years' experience, it is not only a big city, but also a high vacancy rate of buildings, and even the vacancy rate of buildings in county-level cities is increasing rapidly. One of my clients in Ji'nan has 7 suites, and their village (near the city village transformation, near Hong house) has the majority of 4 or more villagers. There are also Beijing, Wenzhou customers take advantage of the National Games to Ji'nan real estate, bought a unit at birth. Luneng leads the city, the delivery room has been over 1 years, occupancy rate less than 50%. More than half of the houses are empty. The Levy of property tax is calculated in 3%. Those who have 3 houses in their hands are paying hundreds of thousands of property taxes every year. They have to change their mortgage and interest rates, and pay taxes. At this time, there will be a lot of second-hand housing. One is to reduce the number of cities going into town, the other is to increase housing. Urbanization has brought about rising housing prices. This fallacy is also self destructive.

If you believe that mobile phones, computers and motorcycles with over 10000 yuan 10 years ago, motorcycles can now be easily bought.

We have reason to believe that 10 years later, the house will not be a problem.

First rent a house, do not use the most imaginative gold 10 years (25 years old -35 years old) to the bank, the government work.

It is no doubt that young people buy houses are overdrawn with a short youth and a long imagination of the future. Many people also overdraft their parents in their later years.