The Cotton Market Should Be Ordered In Order To Guard Against Stampede.

The Spring Festival opens. Cotton market It was spring breeze, the American market rose during the festival, and the cotton mill started to replenishment. It was said that the cotton and hemp of the regiment were to solve the pressure of the cotton and linen loan in the division, and planned to buy 500 thousand tons of machine picked cotton produced by the division, and the price was 13500. "Warm wind" Zheng cotton rose, opened up all the way, after the second trading day after the Spring Festival, February 26th, May, September contracts, respectively, 1348013870 of 3 months, new high. The spot market was encouraged and the offer was mostly raised by 200-300 yuan. But the market has not yet responded. A strong "cold air" has come from Xinjiang, and the regiment has to reduce the price of the machine picked cotton. Therefore, Zheng cotton's newly emerged Zheng cotton has come down again. In March 12th, the Xinjiang area reduced the cotton planting area of 15 years, which was only a flash in the pan. On the second day, Zheng cotton returned and fell down.

If the regiment is lowering its price, its original intention is sure to stimulate sales, but the reality is that the price reduction of the regiment has led to the market's confidence in the post market. The cotton mill has not increased procurement because of the price cuts of the Corps. On the contrary, the purchase of hand picked cotton has become more cautious. In January 20th, at the annual cotton conference held in Beijing, when asked whether the regiment could carry the price, Liang Dongya, general manager of cotton and hemp corps, once said a paragraph in the reply. "If we drop the price, we will also drop down somewhere, and then form a new balance. The place will always be low, then vicious competition and vicious circle." The bottom line is that the regiment will carry the price. In the case of constant demand in the market, the price reduction will not have much effect on sales. Only the corps and the local people will lose everything. The present situation is that the Corps can not afford to carry it. The result is Liang Zong's conjecture that the regiment will drop and the place will drop again, forming a new balance, and the sales volume has not increased obviously. On the contrary, it has hit the market confidence, the cotton mill wait-and-see, prudent purchase and control of cotton stocks, resulting in a decrease in the total amount of short-term purchases.

This year, the state cancelled the purchase and storage, and cotton sales entered a new situation under the new normal. How should cotton sales be carried out under the new normal? I think we should recognize the situation and proceed orderly, so as to guard against "stampede".

The major situation this year is:

1. long sales cycle. Season acquisition, year-round sale. The state cancels the purchase and storage. cotton All market sales are required, and the sales time is the whole sales year. To the new cotton market this year, plus the new cotton transfer from cotton mill to cotton, it will last 13 months before and after November.

2. the number of sales available is relatively clear. This year's new cotton production is expected to be in the majority of 430-440 tons. As of March 25th, Xinjiang has processed 4 million 300 thousand tons of cotton, and the number of mainland public inspection is close to 90 million tons. If the proportion of the 400 type enterprises purchasing the main body of the mainland to participate in the public inspection accounted for more than 70% of the total volume, it is presumed that the total output of the inland area should be 130-140 million tons, and the total sales volume of the whole country is about 430+140=570 million tons.

3. sales progress is faster than expected. Xinjiang: Xinjiang cotton has 100 thousand tons of self use. Last weekend, about 250 tons were exported, of which 500 thousand tons were stored in the mainland, and 2 million tons were actually sold, with an average monthly consumption of about 400 thousand tons. The remaining 430-10-200=220 million tons. The sales progress is 210/430=49%. The mainland: this year, most of the processing enterprises in the mainland have implemented the strategy of quick sale and quick sale, taking part in 728 public inspection enterprises, with an average public inspection volume of 1222 tons, with an average stock of less than 100 tons. Most of the small factories are in 1-2 vehicles, at 50-80 tons, and inventory is very small, plus 200 and small ginning. According to 1500 households, the total stock is about 15-20 million tons. According to the total amount of 1 million 400 thousand tons, it has consumed about 140-20=120 million tons, with a sales schedule of 85%, with an average monthly consumption of about 240 thousand tons. The total monthly consumption of the mainland plus Xinjiang is about 640 thousand tons, with a total sales rate of =210+120=330/570=58%. The sales volume will be =570-210-120=240 million tons, the remaining sales time: from 4-11 months, and 8 months, according to the monthly sale of 640 thousand tons, the remaining 2 million 400 thousand tons can still sell for 240/64=3.75 months, starting in August will be no cotton can be sold, because the coarse yarn is occupied by imported yarn, the domestic cotton mill is forced to retreat to the thin yarn market, with cotton grade tends to high-end, new high-grade cotton flowers will be consumed in advance, the structural shortage will come ahead of schedule.

4., sales progress is uneven. Although the overall sales progress is faster than expected, the mainland cotton, Xinjiang Local cotton and corps cotton appeared imbalance. Due to the early listing, low price and flexible mode of settlement, the mainland cotton sales have been fastest. A considerable number of enterprises have finished their sales. The overall progress is about 85%. Because of the relatively high price and relatively rigid sales methods, the sales progress of Xinjiang corps cotton is the slowest and the overall progress is 30% left and right.

By the end of March, the sales of new cotton had been the slowest and the biggest pressure on the whole country. Therefore, in the past 15 years, it has been an internal repurchase, but also a price promotion and frequent measures. Personally, I believe that in the current situation, we need to recognize the situation and proceed in an orderly way, so that we can not make a mess of the situation and create a stampede. There are three reasons:

1. there is a gap in total volume. There is a gap between the supply and demand of the 15 new cotton, and sales are only a matter of time. At the same time, the powerful enterprises may move back to the space of price when the sales time is shifted later. At present, about 50% of the remaining cotton resources in the market have already formed a certain monopoly, and orderly selling is likely to sell a good price.

2. high level resources. From the public inspection data, the length of 29 and above is only 34.8%, the A horse value is only 35.5%, and the strength of 29 and above is only 26.4%. At the same time, it has 29 lengths and 29 strength. The total proportion of cotton with A horse value is only about 15%, less than 1 million tons, and most of it has been selected and purchased by the cotton mill.

3., price has advantages. The proportion of machine picked cotton in the Corps is larger, and the quality is better than that of the local machine. Especially in the three wire control, it has been widely recognized by the cotton mill. Although the price is higher than that of the local cotton, it has a larger price advantage than 16000 of the imported cotton, Brazil cotton and more than 14000 of West Africa and Central Asia cotton.

BINGTUAN is a state-owned enterprise, the state has more policy support, has greater voice in cooperation with banks, and has much room for negotiation of loans. Compared with other small and medium-sized private processing enterprises, it has the obligation and ability to persist. Finally, let "small partners" go ahead and become the "last laugh" in price. In the specific sales settlement process, we must adapt to the market, do well in service, explore and establish new models of sales network, and so on, we will be able to complete sales tasks on time.