Experts Recommend Reforms To Release Dividends

Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and securities, Renmin University of China, believes that since October 2014, the market has seen a rapid upward trend, and this rise is inevitable.

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The pformation effect of the model is emerging.

Two, monetary policy has entered a relatively loose cycle, which is in line with market expectations. Three, the optimistic expectation of China's future economic mode pformation has also appeared.

The three aspect has promoted the rise of the market, but the rate of increase, especially the volume of pactions, is indeed beyond the imagination of the people.

Ha Jiming, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific, believes that there are few opportunities in the real economy. There are two risks hidden in the stock market when debt is increasing and the real estate market is not as hot as before.

The first is whether the stock market has risen sharply and whether it is sustainable in the long run. Two, it is the risk of financing stocks.

Hu Zuliu, chairman of Chunhua capital, believes that interest rates cut.

Such policies and measures will stimulate the stock market very much, but it will not last long for short-term and periodic policy stimulus.

China's stock market will rely on structural reform to release dividends, and the company's profits can continue to improve. Under the reliable fundamentals, there will be room for further growth.

Li Jiange, vice chairman of Central Huijin Investment Co, believes that the government's policies this year will undoubtedly have an impact on the stock market, such as registration system and the realization of convertibility of RMB capital account.

Wu Xiaoqiu believes that the pformation of China's capital market system is extremely important. There are several elements in the future financial structure and the reform of the financial system.

One is the internationalization of RMB; the two is to promote the securitization reform of China's financial structure, improve the liquidity and risk matching of the entire financial assets; and the three is to promote the internationalization of the market, from the approval system to the registration system reform.

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As soon as March is about to end, a number of agencies have recently issued forecasts for macroeconomic data.

At present, the mainstream view of the organization believes that the growth rate of economic activity indicators in March will still be lower than expected, and monetary and fiscal policies need to be strengthened and relaxed.

CPI or year-on-year increase of 1.3% from the first two months of 2015, 0.8% and 1.4% of the CPI year-on-year increase has increased the pressure of deflation in China.

Zhang Xiaochun, a securities analyst at the League of nations, believes that prices are likely to decline in March after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the growth rate of CPI will decline in March, up 1.3%.

From the March production data and the prices of commodities, the prices of some commodities such as steel, coal and gold have shown signs of stabilization or even rebound.

Zhang Xiaochun predicts that PPI will probably stabilize or even rebound slightly in March, with a growth rate of -4.8%.

The two economic data forecast values of 1.3% and -4.8% were approved by CICC and Shanghai securities at the same time.

Bank of China expects CPI to rise by 1.2% in the first quarter, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year, and PPI is expected to continue to fall in the first quarter, or around 4.4%.

GDP's year-on-year growth rate is dragged down by the misplacement of the Chinese New Year and the tight policy. The industry expects that the growth rate of economic activity in March will still be lower than expected.

CICC expects GDP to grow 7.2% in the first quarter compared with 6% in the quarter after the quarter.

The industrial added value is expected to increase by 6.4% in March, compared with 6.8% in January, which means that industrial production in March is lower than the previous year.

Affected by the impact of the Spring Festival on the March and the tight macroeconomic policy constraints, the growth rate of fixed asset investment is still weak.

It is estimated that the fixed asset investment in March will grow by 13% year-on-year, slower than the 1-2 month in March, implying that the fixed asset investment growth in March was 12.3% over the same month.

Founder Securities also believes that the first quarter GDP year-on-year growth rate decline will become a probability event, mainly affected by the slowdown in the industrial economy dragged down, while the third industry is still relatively high growth rate, structural improvement to a certain extent to alleviate the downward pressure on GDP growth.

Monetary and fiscal policies need to be redeployed. In February, the scale of credit exceeded the market expectations and increased by 1 trillion and 20 billion yuan.

Under the precondition of credit overdraft, the financial data in March declined steadily.

CICC expects M2 to grow by 12% in March, down from 12.5% in February. It is expected that the new RMB loans will remain relatively stable, and that in March will be 1 trillion yuan, less than 1 and February 1 trillion and 250 billion on average.

Although the Spring Festival factor distorts the data, the overall performance of economic growth in March is weak, and inflation continues to decline. CICC believes that monetary and fiscal policies need to be strengthened and relaxed. Especially after the disappearance of the Spring Festival effect in the two quarter, the inflation figures are likely to descend further.

On the contrary, the lag of policy adjustment will increase the adjustment of future needs.

Bank of China released a report yesterday that China's fiscal policy in the two quarter will be intensified.

At the same time, we will continue to reduce taxes and reduce fees, deepen the reform of investment and financing, fiscal and taxation systems, and accelerate the development of "dual engines".

This year's monetary policy will remain stable, and it may be lowered 2-3 times in the future.