Trading Volume Decides To Adjust The Time Period. Investment Needs Rational Thinking.

What needs to be explained is that even if there is a shake adjustment in the stock market, there will be an endless stream of stock market in SOE reform, asset restructuring and new technology.

To this day, facing Shanghai Composite Index , Gem The index has reached a record high. The volume of daily turnover in the two places is over trillion, and the queuing of retail investors has reached a new high. Intuition tells us that this grand occasion is not sustainable. It is very difficult to remain vigilant in the market fanaticism and to invest rationally. Because the temptation of the bull market is too strong, when the Shanghai Composite Index 2000 points, advised people to buy stocks were criticized, the same Shanghai index at 4000 points to persuade people to sell. shares Also being criticized.

However, the logical basis for warning risks is that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 80% over the past year, and the gem index has risen by 60% in just 3 months this year. This year, the A shares eliminated new shares and suspended shares, and the median of 2267 stocks rose by 36%. How much is the average growth rate of Listed Companies in the year? It is not yet known until the end of April. But from the bank data, the average growth rate of banking profits in the first three years was about 15%. In 2014, it dropped to a single digit, an average of about 6%. In 2015, the growth rate will continue to decline. Similarly, the profit performance of the real industry is unlikely to rise, and it will be good to maintain stability. This shows that the basis of this bull market is not an economic improvement. The increase in the performance of listed companies is entirely the result of the promotion of capital volume, or the result of management policies. The main feature of capital push and policy push is to drum up flowers. As long as there is incremental funding, the number of new investors will increase and share prices will rise. The peak of market index and the peak of bull market depend on the peak and limit of capital inflow.

At the recent stage, because of the stimulation of the management stock market, the central bank lowered interest rates and reduced the trend of the quasi trend, and a large amount of capital continued to enter the stock market from the periphery. The daily turnover of the stock market exceeds 1 trillion in Shanghai and Shenzhen. What is this concept? This is a concept that surpasses that of the United States and doubles the stock market around the world. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has a market capitalization of only about 40 trillion, and the market value of non tradable shares is removed. The average trading hours in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets over 1 months exceed the total market value. This high-frequency trading volume is definitely a trading volume when the bull market is crazy. All shareholders enter the field of running, and the amount of money they can use is coming to the market at the fastest speed. This kind of capital inflow rate once decline, or, if the volume fails to keep up with the continuous decline, the market index will appear shock adjustment, decline.

High valuations, no performance and stocks without substantive reform will eventually come to light even in the short term. Keep sober and sensible, keep the appropriate proportion of cash and stock chips, and make preparations for the coming wind and rain ahead of time, so that we can live longer and better in this market.