Vigilance In Stock Market Speculation Needs To Be Vigilant Against High Risk Of Falling.

At present, the stock market presents a very serious bubble characteristics, especially the gem index is more than 80 times higher than the NASDAQ index, but the main line or logic of driving the stock market has not changed. On the one hand, it is the reform dividend, and the other is the demand of residents' asset allocation.

Yangchun March, steady growth measures "good play connected", A share market is unusually hot. After breaking through 3400 points, the market is breaking even, creating a new high of 7 years. The market continued to rise sharply and refused to call back. This week's increase was 4.68%, up more than 170 points. Gem rose 8 weeks later, this week rose a record, to 8.02%, an increase of more than 180 points. As of yesterday, the growth rate of GEM has exceeded 70%.

March 17th seems to be a demarcation line. After the two cities entered a trillion yuan single day spanaction, the daily trading of hundreds of shares has become the norm. Low price shares were destroyed. As of yesterday, only 4 yuan of agricultural banks were like fossils. High priced stocks At the height of the day, 4 stocks are standing on the stock price of 200 yuan, becoming a new competitor of the stock market. A shares Over the years, Moutai, Guizhou's fifth largest shareholder, shares less than 200 yuan.

However, because blue chips and other stock indexes are not cheap, social security funds also participate in local debt. Investment This means that China will not implement the Euramerican asset purchase plan. Coupled with the implementation of the short term cycle under the long term recovery of the real estate recovery, the recovery of financial expenditure is limited, which means that the intensity and scope of the stock index will slow down in the future.

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This year, the A share is a N trend. Before the high and low levels, the high point may be generated in the first half of the year, and then enter the adjustment, but after adjustment, it is still a good opportunity to build positions. The gem is like a game of beating flowers, but there must be good companies standing out in the bubble feast. The Shanghai stock index may have a big callback in the two or three quarter of this year. After breaking through 4000 points, there may be 500 point and 600 point adjustment.

The recent stock market is too hot. It does not slow down a little bit because of the advent of the Qingming holiday. Not long ago, the parties were still debating whether the market would be able to rush to the 5 year high point of 3478 points, but now the goal of the debate is already 4000, because the market has recently been approaching 3900 points. Optimists even believe that with the current rally, a few trading days will be able to win the 4000 mark.

This reminds me of a movie "stock crazy", which was starred by Hong Pan in 90s. This movie reflects the grand occasion of the first generation of stock investors. Since then, China's stock market has been several volts, and now the bull market has come again, and the "stock mad" have reappeared in a new look. Two melting stocks? Cut, too pediatrics. Now, redemption of financial speculates, there are people who borrow money from usury, and those who choose to do the job are speculates. When the college students enter the market, the aunt enters the market, and the cleaning aunt enters the market.

Although the stock market's spring has already opened its eyes, but Xiaobian still wants to give everyone a pot of "warm water", so that everyone has a restless mind. Although the bull market is not true or false, the shock adjustment in the bull market is also enough to harm people. It is necessary to maintain a calm heart in a throbbing heart. Moreover, when the big market has done a lot of attacks, most investors are not yet ready to make the difference between the two sides.

Round around and talk so much, stop here. The most crucial question is, how will the market go after the Qingming Festival? How to operate it? To this end, Xiaobian screened and screened some of the latest market views of some brokerages and public offering, private equity funds and other institutions, with a view to helping everyone's post holiday operation.

First, look at the securities business, Shen Wan Hongyuan securities latest strategy report continues to see more. It believes that although the new round of new IPO is about to be issued, but in the atmosphere of increasing funds and bullish sentiment constantly strengthened, the market will remain strong, and the Shanghai composite index is expected to challenge the 4000 point. The market is full of strength and investors should take advantage of the trend. With the intensification of the bull market scenario, the rising interest in shareholding has become an important force to drive the spiral of the broader market. At present, there is no change in this expected factor.

The latest strategy report of Minmetals securities also said that the two cities in this week, in addition to the main index, have achieved new heights. The most eye-catching ones are two cities which are trading more than one trillion yuan per day, and the daily limit of stocks is over 100, indicating that the bull market has entered a new active normal. Although this week, the SFC issued the first application of 30 enterprises, it may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. However, the bull market foundation will not be shaken by some short-term bad profits. We should grasp the opportunity of every adjustment brought by the market.

Southwest Securities latest strategy report said that the market Friday hit a new high since March 18, 2008. The weekly K-line average system is basically maintained in a long queue, and the weekly K line is far away from the 5 week average. This week, whether big market value or small market value varieties are continuing to hit a new high, accumulated a huge profit margin. After the Ching Ming holidays, the four trading days will form a downward trend after the rush, mainly because the date of closing to purchase will form a profit sell-off. If the economic data release the negative effect, it will increase the intensity of the decline. It suggests that we should gradually reduce the positions and avoid systemic risks with the help of the uptrend.

State capital securities latest strategy report also believes that this week, the market continues to drive up volume, short term accelerated sprint stage. Policy cooling intention is obvious, pay close attention to quantitative energy change. The market accelerated the sprint stage, and accumulated a huge amount of short-term profit taking. The pressure of technical adjustment has increased significantly. Market short-term risk is obviously greater than opportunity, steady investors need to remain sober.

In terms of public funds, the Dacheng Fund believes that with the interest rate cut last year, the operation logic of A shares has changed greatly, and the macroeconomic impact on the market has weakened. However, capital and policies have become the main engine to drive the market. Whether the bull market can continue depends largely on the policy orientation: first, whether the demand will lead the capital back to the real economy; and the two is whether the pace of IPO, industrial capital reduction and registration system will accelerate at the supply side.

The South Fund believes that in the choice of growth stocks, we should be alert to possible differentiation. We should be cautious about avoiding speculation in purely hot topics, low growth in profitability, and unbalance in valuation. More optimistic about the value adjustment in place, the future performance of higher growth potential of high-quality white horse growth stocks, focusing on the Internet + new economy, state-owned enterprises reform, manufacturing spanformation and upgrading and other development directions.

Xinhua Fund said that this year, the two cities industry sector and style rotation frequently, gem and small and medium-sized boards gradually recover. However, with the continuous fermentation of policies such as SOE reform, Internet plus and local debt replacement, many blue chip stocks are expected to end the previous callback and enter a new round of rising cycles.

Da Mo Huaxin Fund believes that the current stock index of blue chips has basically recovered to a reasonable location (except bank shares). Compared with the mature market, the valuation level has also changed from a discount to a premium, while the growth stocks represented by gem are generally high. At present, the high valuation of A shares is mainly based on excess liquidity, while the fundamentals are facing downside risks. Therefore, the stock market or difficult to reproduce the 2014 market.

Chongyang investment believes that in the long run, we should be fully confident in the market, and we should take an active part in it. But in the short term, we still need major risks when the market sentiment is quite high. On the one hand, the average price earnings ratio of individual sectors is nearly 100 times. Meanwhile, a relatively high premium for H-share is also seen in the super market value plate, which is a disturbing factor.