The Real Economy Is Still Facing A Shortage Of Funds.

Xu Xiaonian believes that the new normal includes three aspects:

First, the government is no longer a pillar of GDP's high growth.

Second, under the new normal, the government does not rely on stimulating fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic growth;

Third, the government will create new dividends through reform.

Why do we propose a new normal at this time? Xu Xiaonian believes that the background is caused by the mismatch between the growth of investment and the growth of GDP over the past thirty years, and the annual growth rate of investment is about 25%. The growth rate of GDP is only 10%. This is a very obvious overinvestment, which has made fundamental changes in China's economy, that is, the shortage economy under the planned system to the present surplus economy.

From all walks of life, especially Traditional manufacturing industry Overall overcapacity, accompanied by overcapacity, is a significant increase in bank credit, which has led to a natural decline in investment growth and a decline in investment growth, which inevitably leads to a decline in economic growth. In the case of excess capacity, the macro expansion policy is invalid. Macro policy The stimulus to the economy is getting weaker and weaker, that is, the diminishing policy effect.

Under the new normal, Xu Xiaonian said that the current decision should be economic growth. demand But supply, which is the new thinking under the new normal.

"The current reform is not to stimulate demand, but to increase the vitality and efficiency of the supply side." the so-called demand side is not enough to cause economic growth to slow down is a wrong way of thinking. " Xu Xiaonian said that there is no demand, not because consumers do not need, but because there is no spending power, which requires support from residents' household income; on the other hand, the growth of investment needs support from corporate profits.

Xu Xiaonian said that the government can not create effective demand. The government's financial resources also come from the income of residents and enterprises. The government's tax revenue does not change the total social income, and the total effective demand of the society will remain unchanged. Similarly, the government expands the scale of monetary liquidity and dilutes the purchasing power of money, only transferring the purchasing power to the government, and the total social income does not increase.

The Shanghai composite index is close to 4000 points, and the daily turnover has also reached 1 trillion and 400 billion of the volume. Xu Xiaonian said in his speech that when the stock market was unclear, he said, "it is difficult to find profitable investment projects in a surplus economy, so it can not create effective demand." Xu Xiaonian said that a large amount of capital flows in the capital market, and the real economy is still facing a shortage of funds.

Under the current situation of excess capacity, the macro expansion policy will fail, which is the historical background of the government's new normal. A large amount of capital flows in the capital market, while the real economy is still facing a shortage of funds.