Weak Foreign Trade: RMB Closed Up Nearly A Month Low

In the global market, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar fell on Monday, after China's export figures unexpectedly fell 15% in March, making the market worried that China's economic growth was sluggish.

The RMB against the US dollar fell for the first time in six consecutive days, closing to a new low in the past month, with the central price weakening and approaching the 6.14 yuan mark.

Traders pointed out that China's export weakness in March led to a narrowing of the surplus and a sharp decline in offshore CNH.

But in view of the fact that the biggest currency is the Central Bank of China.

The material is limited.

They also said recently

B shares strong performance, the enthusiasm of the market to buy foreign exchange to stimulate the continuous efforts to buy foreign exchange market; from a technical point of view, after the RMB exchange rate touched by 6.19 yuan last week, the market has accepted that the interval is a short-term high point of view.

However, there is limited space for the renminbi to continue to fall. Although the exchange rate of the big banks has weakened today, it has always been in the near future, and the international dollar is in a more balanced position.

"At present, the market is generally more powerful than the dollar.

Now it appears again. "

Traders from a city firm said, "the customs import and export data released in March are too bad today."

Traders said that the impact of weak import and export data on foreign exchange markets in the afternoon was no longer obvious.

In March, the growth rate of imports and exports both declined year by year, and the trade surplus narrowed sharply. This will have a psychological expectation effect on the market and boost demand for foreign exchange purchase.

Under the backdrop of China's poor economic data, the Central Bank of China will also guide the exchange rate without forcing the renminbi to rise.

Another trader in the city believes that the short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate is greater.

On the one hand, China's economic slowdown and China's import and export data have not improved. If the US dollar index is stronger, the yuan will go down further. But if the US dollar index fails to regain its momentum, it is expected that the RMB's fall will be limited in the medium term.

Chinese Customs announced on Monday that exports in dollar terms fell 15% in March, a 13 month low.

In March, imports fell by 12.7% over the same period last year; Reuters survey estimates increased by 12% and 11.7% respectively.

Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial market, said that considering the sharp narrowing of the trade surplus in March, the factors restricting the fluctuation of the RMB have been relaxed, and the two-way volatility elasticity of RMB is expected to rise further.

If the US dollar index is stronger in the near future, the RMB may depreciate slightly.