Interpretation Of The Market Layout Of Securities Industry And Future Financial Management
Margin margin exceeded 1 trillion and 600 billion, substantially raised the margin financing industry assumption, based on the adjustment of industry assumptions, UBS Securities unified up the company's 2015-17 year profit forecast.
Continue to remain optimistic about the industry, optimistic about CITIC A, Haitong A and Huatai Securities.
Since 2015, with the continuous flow of incremental capital into the market, the average daily turnover has broken trillions.
New normal goals
。
The average daily turnover in the 1 quarter reached 761 billion 400 million yuan, much exceeding UBS and market expectations.
Considering that the turnover rate is still below the 2007 and 2014 high points, UBS expects more active market pactions to continue.
The average daily turnover of industries has been substantially raised. Assuming that the average daily turnover in the 2015-17 years will be raised to 750 billion yuan /7797 billion yuan /8051 billion yuan, the increase will be 85%/75%/70%.
2015 1-2 months due to
Regulators
Strengthened, margin trading business growth slowed slightly, but in March benefited from high market sentiment, margin trading accelerated again.
By the beginning of April 2015, the two financial balance had exceeded 160 million yuan, exceeding UBS and
Market expectations
。
Taking into account the current market is very active, investors demand for financing and regulatory approval of the overall norms of securities financing business, UBS Securities expects the future margin trading will remain relatively fast growth.
Substantially raising the margin assumption, it is estimated that the two fiscal balance will reach 2.5/3.0/3.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2015-2017, with an increase of 67%/69%/81%.
Since 2015, the brokerage sector has been stagflated. However, from the market environment and the 1-3 month financial data of listed brokerages, UBS Securities expects that the net profit margin of listed brokerages in 2015 will increase by more than 70% year-on-year, while the 1 quarter net profit of listed brokerages may exceed market expectations.
Continue to remain optimistic about the industry and continue to look at CITIC A, Haitong A and Huatai Securities with better fundamentals and performance support.
The industry assumption of average daily turnover and margin margin has been substantially raised, and UBS Securities has uniformly raised the company's earnings forecasts.
The adjusted net profit forecast is much higher than that of the WIND market.
Considering that the market sentiment is high and the incremental capital continues to flow into the market, securities companies are directly benefiting from the great development of the capital market. UBS believes that the expected market consensus is expected to increase in the 2015-2017 years.
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