The Yuan Will Replace The Euro As The Second Largest Reserve Currency In The World.

In 2030, RMB will become the second largest reserve currency in the world.

In the short span of five years, the proportion of RMB in the global foreign exchange reserves has increased year by year. With the establishment of the overseas clearing center, the increase of RMB trade and the convenience of cross-border use also attract more and more international enterprises' attention. HSBC's survey of 1600 enterprises around the world shows that nearly 1/4 of executives hope to grasp the development opportunities brought about by RMB internationalization.

In the past, many overseas enterprises adopted the renminbi probably only for the first mover advantage, and hoped to take the lead in the trade with China. Now more and more enterprises have begun to consider the importance of the renminbi comprehensively, which indicates that the RMB is moving towards a truly internationalized one. currency Steady progress. " Zhao Minzhong, vice president of HSBC (China) Co., Ltd.

　　 RMB reserves A sharp rise in share

In March this year, HSBC surveyed 72 central banks whose total foreign exchange reserves totaled 5 trillion and 900 billion US dollars, accounting for 48% of the total foreign exchange reserves of the world.

The survey shows that the share of RMB in the total amount of foreign exchange reserves of the central bank has gradually increased. It is expected that by the end of 2015, the proportion will be 2.9%, reaching 6.9% in 2020, 10.4% in 2025 and 12.5% in 2030.

A senior management of Foreign Exchange Reserve believes that many central banks gradually increase the proportion of RMB in foreign exchange reserves, which is a good trend. However, the duration of RMB becoming the main reserve currency in the world still depends on the stability and sustainable growth of China's economy and the pace of internationalization of China's gold market.

Of the 72 central banks surveyed, 35 have said they have invested or are considering investing in Renminbi assets, but the limited access to China's local market has become a major concern of these central banks. At present, the main channels for foreign central banks to invest in Renminbi assets are offshore bond market and offshore bond market. Foreign central banks prefer to buy high-quality investment grade bonds issued by central government or policy banks.

It is worth noting that although China has not yet opened its capital account, the establishment and promotion of the free trade area has provided an effective way for RMB assets investment.

In an interview with the first Financial Daily reporter, Zhuang Chong, chief executive of Standard Chartered Bank, said that cross border two-way pool of RMB funds has effectively promoted the process of RMB internationalization and reduced the financing cost of enterprises.

Moreover, another important reason for pushing the renminbi to become the second largest reserve currency in the near future is the "letting go" of the euro. Since the European Central Bank vigorously launched quantitative easing (QE), interest rates in the eurozone countries have fallen sharply, triggering a sharp sell-off of the euro by the global central bank. Data show that in the fourth quarter of 2014, the euro accounted for 22.2% of the world's foreign exchange reserves, the lowest since 2002.

　　 Corporate bet RMB Development opportunities

Recently, a survey conducted by HSBC shows that RMB has entered nearly 1/4 (22%) horizon of management of global visiting enterprises. These enterprises say their management has put the development opportunities brought by RMB internationalization on the agenda. More than 1/3 (34%) of the global respondents believe that the renminbi will not only be used in trade related to China in the next five years, but will also be used in business related to China, like the US dollar.

Hang Seng Bank predicts that by 2020, China's total trade volume is expected to double, RMB denominated trade proportion will double to 28%, and trade volume settled in RMB will increase 3 times to 3 trillion US dollars.

The emphasis of the management of overseas enterprises on RMB is closely related to their growth in business dealings with mainland China. Over half (54%) of the global surveyed enterprises expect to increase their business dealings with mainland China in the next 12 months. In the United Arab Emirates, this proportion exceeds 70% (71%), followed by South Korea (68%), and the proportion of China's main trading partners in the United States, Britain, Canada and Germany also exceeds 60%.

Yao Shaohua, senior analyst at Hang Seng Bank, told reporters: "if the international currency is accepted as the currency of trade settlement, the exchange rate risk faced by importers and exporters will be reduced, and the reduction of exchange rate risk will also bring huge profits."

HSBC has released an investigation report on 72 foreign exchange reserves management agencies around the world. It is expected that by 2030, the proportion of RMB in the total foreign exchange reserves of the world is expected to rise to 12.5%, when the yuan will replace the euro to become the second largest reserve currency after the US dollar.