Gao Shanwen Doesn'T Talk About Stocks In The Short Term.

In early August of last year, we put forward a more clear view of the upcoming bull market - "three level propulsion theory of Rockets".

As a seller, we must first have an idea of the market. Secondly, considering the spread of the stimulus idea, we have been thinking for a long time.

The theory of rocket propulsion came to mind one night when I was running on a treadmill. I think a bull market is coming into being. Its formation is like a rocket launching satellite. It has huge thrust from the ground to push the satellite into the high altitude fire path.

After the fuel is burned, the satellite is not high enough to fall, so the relay of the three stage rocket is needed.

At that time, the first class rocket had already started, the two stage rocket might start in the four quarter, but in the three quarter, the Rockets did not know when to start. This is the metaphor we put forward last August to emphasize our view of the market.

In early November of last year, when we saw a lot of data, including real estate and other market changes, we thought that the ignition of the two stage rockets was mature. At that time, we thought that the two stage rocket had been launched.

Looking back at the past, in a less than good metaphor, it is a prophecy, because the rise in the market is really like a rocket.

At that time, we thought of a metaphor that the formation of the bull market is a relay process. It can not be accomplished overnight and needs some conditions to be pformed and confirmed.

But looking back now, this is a mistake. The market's rising rhythm is indeed like a rocket, exceeding the expectation of the majority of market participants, higher than we expected at that time, because at the end of last year, I once said that we could take into account the height of the two stage rocket, that is, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3478 points, but now it is more than 4200 points, which is far beyond our expectations and imagination.

Why do we say that it is not a very lucky language? If we strictly pursue the metaphor itself, we know that rocket launching is a risky job. It may push the satellite smoothly and accurately into the orbit, but it may also explode at high altitude. There are serious problems. The launch of the rocket itself is very high-risk and can not be completely controlled. There are some uncertainties.

Now we feel that the speed of such a rapid rise has exceeded our expectations at many levels and seems to be abnormal. At least some unusual phenomena are emerging. We feel a little uncomfortable or some vigilance.

Our confirmation for the start of the three stage rocket is that the private sector's investment has stabilized and picked up. The long-term recovery has been confirmed. Under this pattern, we can see the full recovery of the profits of the enterprise, and this condition is still not yet confirmed, which is far from certain.

In this sense, if we continue to use our previous rough views, it still seems to be in the interval constrained by the two stage rockets, which is a very brief supplement to me.

I know that there is no operational significance in reviewing the past. More importantly, how to look back is how to see 2015 or even longer.

Before I start a more detailed discussion, let me start with my basic view of the future.

My first basic view is still that the starting trend of the three stage rocket is still certain, but the height is not sure when it will start. Do you say that it will not start at a certain time this year? I don't think it is possible to exclude this possibility, but it is very vague. We don't know when it will happen, but I want to say more important information: the launch of the three stage rocket itself is definite, but very uncertain is the time, and how to grasp the turning point of this time, we can only do one thing to observe the change of data. This is my first basic view.

My second basic view is that the recent strength to drive up the market is not sustainable in itself.

If the stock market is expected to rise, everyone will be exulting and running around, and after all, the market is going up. Of course, there are many reasonable elements in it. Although we exceed our expectations, we can also find some reasons to explain it.

But my personal view is that the power to drive up the market in recent years is not sustainable in itself. Recently, there are some basic forces to drive up the market, which has not yet been completely exhausted so far. It may still be one or two months, but this power is not sustainable.

This force has been driving the market up, and in the next one or two months continue to drive the market up, I personally think that a lot of problems have been exposed to a certain extent. Now the momentum of the market is rising and the strength to support it has been so strong that people are not paying special attention to the market. Now there have been some obvious problems and signals. But if the ignition of the three stage rocket can not be timely and effective, with the depletion of this power, some downward adjustment of the market should be entirely imaginable. It simply means that this adjustment will not start immediately, and some forces may still need one or two months or two or three months to continue to consume.

So my view is that we may not be caught in an imminent bear market.

Will we fall into a bear market with relatively large speed or longer duration before the three stage rocket firing? My personal view is that our ability to predict the future may be very limited, but based on our limited experience, logic and historical data, this possibility is not so great. Maybe it will be adjusted in the future. It may not be in the present and may happen in the next few months, but a long bear market with relatively large or large amplitude may not be so imminent.

This is my main view today.

We are half right and half wrong. We do not know which half is right and which half is wrong.

Finally, from this angle, we summarize the logic of our formation of these views.

Last year, we said that the most important logic of the bull market is that everything has gone to the limit. Once a year comes back, it looks a bit extreme. But after a year, we look back at our logic at that time. 80% of these judgements were founded. It is not that everything has gone to extremes, but 80% of things have gone to extremes. Under this condition, we can no longer be bad. The whole market will go in the right direction. This is the most important logic we had at that time last year.

What is the most important logic for us now? I know that the market has risen, and the market is not short of bulls, nor does it lack a very bold forecast, nor does it lack many logics which seem very reasonable. But such logic should be able to provide consistent explanations for long term market fluctuations. This is not true. We need to see whether many explanations can link up the long-term fluctuations of the market. I personally think it is not very easy.

In other words, these explanations may have some problems.

From our point of view, how to understand our current situation, I want to tell an old story, which contains most of the logic I want to say.

Let's take a look at the two and a half years from the beginning of 2009 to May of 2011. At the beginning of 2009, actually, this prediction was not put forward in early 2009, but in 2007. But in early 2009, we clearly emphasized that such a prediction is that we will finally see a more vigorous credit creation in the final development of the economic logic. The fierce credit creation will push the bull market to its climax in a comprehensive way, and then it will be a chicken feather. This prediction is not made at the end of the year.

We think there is no doubt that it was in the bull market at the time, but we think that this bull market will erupt a very active credit creation, pushing all the markets to a very crazy situation, and then a chicken feather.

Unfortunately, this prediction was made on the eve of the outbreak of the financial crisis. So after the prediction, the financial crisis of 2008 broke out, and all major assets suffered serious setbacks. But even in the most difficult time of 2008, I think the logic of the prediction itself is no problem.

At the end of 2008, I personally thought that the probability of this prediction has come out, so in early 09, we believe that an active credit creation promoted a comprehensive bull market, and the bull market's goal was to create a new high point. This is the view of early 09.

Looking back at this view is not correct, but this view is not entirely wrong.

Looking back, from 2009 to May 2011, the real estate market is no doubt a new high, and the real estate prices of North and Shenzhen are even higher. Even to the two or three line cities, the real estate prices in the counties have reached a new high, and the market value of the real estate market is much larger than the market value of the stock market.

Let us look at it. Even for the stock market, the index of small and medium-sized boards has reached a record high in the middle of 2011, exceeding the height of 2007 and 2008.

For example, the share price of the consumer sector also hit a record high in late 2011.

If we carefully studied the alternative assets, such as antiques, paintings and artworks, the price of these alternative assets in 2011 was also significantly higher than that in 2007.

So in a very large class of asset markets, many asset prices have reached a record high in the middle of 2011.

This fact must be clear.

But in this context, there is a prominent accident. This outstanding accident we didn't understand in 2011 and we didn't understand it in 2012, but after 2013, we thought we slowly began to understand why.

As for what we have just discussed, the blue chip stocks will not be able to bounce up in 2011 at 3400 points. Why does blue chip stock price stop at 3400? One possibility is that the stock price is not rising because of a big profit problem.

If that is the case, I think it will make sense.

But the problem is that this explanation is not valid. In the two quarter of 2012, Blue-chip company's profits basically returned to the high point in 2007.

What happened after that was that the overall performance of blue chip stocks was good, but the valuation of blue chips continued to decline and fell to a level that most senior market participants could not understand.

Now many people say that the market has gone up so much that it is difficult to understand the value of the valuation. Qiu retorts (Qiu Guolu) retorts that it is as if you didn't understand it when its valuation dropped in history.

For example

PE may be 0.5 times lower, but its profit growth has been over 30% for several years.

If you think that the market is short of funds, but the real estate has reached a new high, the interest rate of the bond market is not high in the bull market, the alternative assets have hit a new high, and the medium and small board has reached a new high, which indicates that the market is not too serious for lack of funds.

Blue chips are not profitable? Why did blue chips stop before the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3478? I can not understand this question for a long time.

Some people even say that blue chips are aging, there is no growth and blue chips are too big, so that the market can not stir up.

In fact, I can hardly believe these explanations.

Blue chip market is too big, can it be bigger than the real estate market? At the end of 2011, the market value of the entire real estate market exceeded 100 trillion.

Is the market value bigger than the real estate market?

It is said that blue chips are aging. They are lower than those of the blue chip industry in the US. Can you say aging? Why? Why can't we understand this problem for a long time?

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