Director Of Finance And Capital Market Research Center Of Fudan University

This week, the economy continues to descend, and the rate of interest reduction is likely to grow again.

At the same time, the SFC has been deeply worried about the 80-100 day stock market going up in a big way.

Wednesday fell sharply, and Thursday morning was the best opportunity for a bull market to return to gold.

But the chance was fleeting, and it rose more than 110 points in the afternoon and more than 90 points on Friday.

(1) in the 90s of last century, China's stock market was in the ascendant. The Shanghai stock market started from 100 points, daily trading, and rushed to 1400 points. After all the new shares went on the market, they rose 8 to 10 times, such as Lujiazui, Zhong Bai Yi, Hualian Shopping center and food store.

An economist in Hongkong has written a letter to the high level. He said alarmist that he should watch out for big overseas funds to sneak in and raise the stock market.

Therefore,

Continuously increasing supply, a large number of new shares are issued and listed rapidly, and a huge amount of treasury bonds are issued.

Down and down; electric vacuum (100 yuan a share) fell from 2200 yuan to 400 yuan, the stock market fell 900 points, fell below 500 points, fell too horrible.

Later, the Shanghai Stock Exchange later thought of various ways to save the stock market.

(2) in November 1996, in the face of a big bull market with a wave of waves, the stock market rushed to more than 1000, and the management was unhappy. The first thing was to comment on the important media that "no use of the stock market to make huge profits". People did not listen to it and still went crazy to enter the market. The government decided to implement a 10% limit and down board system.

Later, the Shanghai stock market was all down.

Everyone in the market was so upset that someone collapsed in fear and sent to the hospital.

On the same night, I called a responsible person in charge of management to reflect the sadness.

He said: the government is intolerable, let the market do not go up, that is, the rise and fall, Guangdong cattle have been killed; the tractor sold to speculation.

I said, "have you seen it? It's not that serious.

The economic growth is 11%; the money is running so fast; the stock market is not going up; it's the currency phenomenon! The graveyard in Suzhou has gone up six times! I have a friend who bought many graves and made 600% of the money! The stamp market is also soaring! The frying graves are frying stamps; you can't get the tax; you can get a lot of stamp duty on the stock market! "The responsible man listened to the argument and was speechless for a long time.

Later, the head of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange delivered a speech at the market, saying that the securities market should be developed after rectification.

As a result, the market is trading again.

The management knew that he was angry. How did he stop trading again? What if he came back again?

In April 16th, SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Xiaogang and vice chairman Jiang Yang delivered a speech. In this speech, I would like to remind you that since the second half of last year, China's stock market has seen a continuous upward trend; many new investors have opened their accounts.

Quite a few of the new listed investments lack experience and feelings about the stock market ups and downs. They do not have enough knowledge and vigilance against the stock market investment risk. For this reason, we remind investors, especially those who are new investors in the stock market, to remain rational and calm in their participation in stock investment, and must not be misled by the idea of "better buy wrong than to miss". We should fully estimate the investment risks of the stock market, prudently invest, do what we can and do not follow the trend.

Note that this is the first time to make clear and resolute advice to the 140 million shareholders, greeting; "window guidance" and attitude is not tough, harsh, is a good reminder, advice.

In addition, SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures themselves are also tailored to prevent the unilateral market of the stock market (at present, mainly to rise). They can allow institutions and big investors to go short and form a relatively balanced trend of hedging with stocks.

In short, in this world, since Keynes's theory came into existence, the market's only fear is policy.

Management obviously hopes that the bull market will continue, but it is hoped that it will be longer and longer.

Instead of being like Japan, the stock market rose to 28900 in 1989. The government and economists were still afraid, raising interest rate tax rates, and trying to eliminate bubbles. As a result, there was an accident. Later, the stock market of the stock market fell 20 years, the economy was depressed, and 1000 banks fell 250 banks.

So countries around the world are now careful about the stock market, not to collide with it; but the key should be normal and healthy cattle, rather than running wild cattle.

There are the following points: (1) brokerage stocks and bank stocks are interlocking and rising moderately.

They are frying small cap stocks in large cap stocks, such as western and Oriental Securities, and Ningbo bank in the bank.

(2) liquor has also been up for a while, and the trading limit has increased. (3) China's north car and South car are trading daily, from 10 yuan to nearly 40 yuan.

(4) the stock index is virtual; China's oil inflation has raised the index.

(5) all kinds of stocks will perform magic tricks.

(6) small and medium enterprises board and gem are indifferent, there are obvious wrong killing of good stocks, and leave room for speculation later.

(7) this bull market is hard to do, you run away, you go up in a few days, you chase it in, catch up with a high point again, and drop a few days.

Be careful not only to be careful when buying, but also to be careful when throwing.

(8) to buy new shares, the rate is very low and low, completely become chicken ribs, and when bought back, the old shares are expensive, very worthless.

(9) the stock market came unconsciously to the 4300 gate.

Pay attention; hope that healthy cows and slow cows; if regulators are really angry, there are many ways to hold back the stock market; for example, listing 20-30 new shares every week will happen.