Stock Market Topic: Cattle Are Not Old, Do Not Be Afraid Of Heights.

Shanghai 50 corresponds to the big blue chips, the first day of listing, the 100 point closes, showing a long-term bullish attitude.

The CSI 500 corresponds to 500 small and medium-sized stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities. The first day is the 200 point closing of the stock market, and the market is bearish for the medium and small stocks with high valuations.

Every other day, the A share market gave the answer directly. The Shanghai composite index jumped high and closed up 2.2%, closing at 4287, while the gem index fell 0.82%.

Stock index futures are the main short selling tools for A shares. In April 17th, the SFC announced that it should promote the development of securities lending businesses.

It is particularly noteworthy that the OTC stock allocation can not be carried out in any form, and the umbrella trust provisions may have a greater impact on the market.

With the increase in short selling power,

On the 4000 point, the wind and rain will come, and the result is probably the return of Qiao GUI Qiao road.

The end of the bull market is not yet available.

The contrast shows that the bull market starts with more consistent characteristics: stable economic growth, downward inflation, lower bond yields, and a relaxation period in monetary policy. The bull market is more consistent at the end of the market: the acceleration of economic growth, the upward trend of inflation, the upward interest rate of bonds, and the tightening cycle of monetary policy.

These five times

There were four bull markets before the end of the year, when inflation levels rose and led to tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates. This seems to be a universal mode of bull market ending. At present, the characteristics of A share bull market start are basically consistent, but the characteristics of bull market end are not yet available.

But there is an exception, that is, the Chinese bull market in 1996-2001 years, when China's CPI rose again after a brief recovery in 2000, and almost always negative growth before 2002, when monetary policy continued to be lax, and the rate reduction cycle lasted until September 2003.

But the stock market began to fall as early as June 2001 and entered the four year bear market.

Looking back at the end of the bull market, there were two reasons: first, the intervention of the executive hand; and two, the recovery of the real economy diverted funds.

Based on the above experience, it can be concluded that the conventional way of ending bull market in history is upward inflation leading to tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, but there are also unconventional paths: under low inflation and low interest rate, bull market will end because of administrative intervention and fund diversion.

The two quarter of domestic inflation pressure is very low, monetary policy is still in the relaxation stage, interest rates still have room for decline, not conform to the normal mode of bull market end path; and in the administrative regulatory authorities hope that the stock market will develop healthily and promote industrial pformation, and on the capital side, the stock market will continue to get increased capital inflow. (see "fund shares big data to see A shares: not to the craziest time"), this is different from the environment of China's unconventional bull market ended in 2001.

According to statistics, a total of 57 themes were recommended by brokerages in the two quarter.

It is worth mentioning that the theme of "one belt and one road" is recommended by 17 brokerages, and the recommended proportion is as high as 85%. In addition, the state-owned assets reform, smart grid and industrial 4 have also been recommended by the securities companies. The number of recommended brokerages is 12, 11 and 9 respectively, while the themes of integration of environmental protection, new energy vehicles, Internet + +, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are all well regarded by the securities companies.

Securities companies are so popular about related topics such as "one belt and one road" and state owned assets reform. What companies are most favored by brokerages in the two quarter? With the gradual implementation of the strategy of "one belt and one road", the railway infrastructure and equipment industries will usher in a difficult opportunity to develop. The leading companies in China's China Railway and China construction industry have been uniformly recommended by the securities companies in the two quarter.

The index constantly soared, and fear of high occurrence naturally emerged. This is not only a concern for shareholders but also a concern for Xiao Gang, chairman of the SFC.

Xiao Gang went to Shen Wan Hongyuan securities research, the topic is 4000 points are not high.

The answers given by Shen Wan are: some are high, others are not high.