Analysis Of Seasonal Trend Of Cotton Market

Judging from the trend of cotton price index, since 2005, the cotton futures price index has been half and half in May.

Among them, the years of rising prices were 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2013, respectively, rising 1.79%, 2.48%, 0.08%, 0.18% and 0.25%; and the year of falling prices were 2005, 2008, year, 2009, 2012 and 2012, with 5.43%, 0.01%, 0.33%, 0.33% and 0.33% respectively.

In terms of monthly amplitude, the maximum fluctuation in 2012 years is 2327 yuan, while the rest of the year fluctuates between 500 and 1300 yuan.

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Statistics show cotton futures price in May.

The average value is expected to be around 1000 yuan, and it is expected that in May 2015, Zheng cotton price will maintain a trend of oscillation and rebound.

At present, domestic cotton stocks are high.

Low speed operation and other factors are still the main factors to suppress cotton prices.

However, the overall supply and demand pattern of cotton in this year is developing towards a favorable direction. Cotton production is reduced and the planting area of cotton sowing is expected to decrease this year, and cotton imports will decrease significantly. In addition, summer consumption will come, the downstream cotton yarn will be sold smoothly, the profits of cotton mill will increase, and the procurement will be stabilized. Meanwhile, the rebound of oil will enhance the price of polyester, and the domestic cotton consumption will increase, and the market will rebound.

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Recently, the acquisition of seed cotton in Hebei has basically ended, and only 200 small factories have acquired "sub cotton".

In April 30th, most of Cangzhou's low-grade seed cotton was 2.00-2.52 yuan / Jin, and Hengshui, Xingtai and other places 1.80-2.40 yuan / Jin line.

According to the introduction of the 200 small factories, there are basically no cotton farmers to sell on their own at present. Instead, they send their own staff or contact cotton brokers to purchase from street to house.

It is expected that there will be no more seed cotton buyers in late May.

Spot is still in the doldrums.

At present, most of the ginning plants in China are out of stock, and the selling pressure of sporadic stock enterprises is still large.

In April 30th, the head of a 400 large plant in Handan said that there were 120 tons of stock at present, 3128, 4128 and 2227 of the main level, 13000 yuan / ton, 12600 yuan / ton, 12400 yuan / ton respectively, which is the main price in Hebei.

However, a small number of enterprises are realizable, and the 3128 level offer is only 12700-12800 yuan / ton.

But even so, sales are still not ideal.

Real estate cotton is low in price and low in price, which has not attracted the attention of cotton enterprises.

A cotton trader said that at present, the Xinjiang hand picked cotton price in Hengshui was 2128, 14200 yuan / ton, and 3128 grade 13800 yuan / ton, which changed little compared with last week.

Some machine picked cotton declined a lot. The cotton picker's highest price of machine picked cotton was 13200 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last week's 13400 yuan / ton.

"People are not interested in such a low price offer."

The cotton merchant said, "hand picked cotton is shipped on a" smooth wind ", which has increased since last week.

The cotton trader said that it will continue to insist on the current price stable shipment.

Nowadays, it is not easy to find high-quality long staple cotton in Hebei, mainly because some cotton merchants have suspended quotations.

On the same day, Hebei's 137, 237, and 337 grade long staple cotton prices were at 28600-28800 yuan / ton, 27600-27700 yuan / ton, 26300-26500 yuan / ton, compared with last week, they continued to rise 200 yuan / ton.

Recently, Xinjiang cotton ginning factory continued to raise its quotations due to rising cotton futures and increasing market confidence.

The mainland's long staple cotton also rises.

Many industry indicated that the long staple cotton could challenge 29000-29200 yuan / ton high point in the near future.

Unlike cotton "mild warming", cotton pairs are still "cold wind".

On the same day, the owner of Dongguang oil extraction plant said that at present, the price of cottonseed arrived at 1.10-1.12 yuan / jin (oil content 12%, moisture 12%), though it dropped by 0.01-0.02 yuan per week compared with last week, but the business life is still hard.

First, squeezing losses, their enterprises lose 45 yuan / ton line, the loss of neighboring enterprises is also 30-50 yuan / ton; second, cotton oil is unsalable.

At present, many enterprises have stock of cottonseed oil, although the price falls to about 4700 yuan / ton, but there is little concern.

According to the person in charge, at present, the operation rate of Hebei oil mill has dropped to 15%, which is expected to fall to more than 10% in mid May.