The Decline In PTA Futures Is Not A Single Factor.

PTA futures suffered heavy losses. The main 1509 contract fell 108 points or 2% on the whole day, closing at 5298 yuan / ton.

Yesterday, the contract was reduced from 6772 to 1 million 310 thousand.

The decline in PTA futures is not caused by a single factor. Chen Xiaoyan, a researcher at Galaxy futures textile department, thinks there are three reasons.

First, the downstream market reached the end of mid season after mid May, and the ability of the downstream market to digest PTA rise weakened. Secondly, the PTA device of the early maintenance was restarted. In early May, the PTA load level was nearly ten percentage points higher than that of the same period last month, and the PTA market entered a stage of short supply balance. Thirdly, PTA futures rose from a low point to a maximum of 5600 yuan, and the cumulative increase was over 20%.

PX, since the aromatics incident in Tenglong, Asia PX has risen from the US $835 / tonne of CFR in April 6th to the highest of 1002 US dollars / ton in May 6th. Meanwhile, the price difference with naphtha has expanded from 319 US dollars / ton to 410 US dollars / ton (PX- naphtha breakeven price is US $300 / ton).

"Naphtha -PX price difference is higher, naphtha production PX still has more profits, in May PX device overhaul is more, it is expected that after June, centralized maintenance is only a high end, raw material end supply is tight, but PX price basically embodies this supply and demand situation."

Chen Xiaoyan said.

Yali, an analyst with Central Plains futures, said that PX's profits rebounded sharply with Tenglong incident.

In the end of May, after the restart of supply of some PX devices in Asia, PX's production profits may be compressed again.

May 15th is the last trading day of the May contract. After the May contract is delivered, the warehouse receipts locked in the futures market will partly return to the spot market and thus suppress the spot price.

"Up to May 14th,

There are about 160 thousand registered warehouse receipts, equivalent to 800 thousand tons in stock.

Consumption in about 10 days.

Xiang Lu's capacity has been shut down, and it has resumed its 2 million 250 thousand tons of unit 1, which has made up for the market shortage to a certain extent.

Cai Li said.

Chen Xiaoyan said that at present, the overall load of PTA is near 7, and the load level of polyester 84% is basically tight.

If there are more than 120 tons of equipment, there will be an unexpected stop.

It will still be tight, but the 4 million 500 thousand tons of Xiang Lu can not be restarted in the short term, but once opened, the market will be obviously bad.

The polyester load level has reached the highest level in the past three years, because the seasonal peak season is going to be over, and the polyester profit space is compressed. The probability of maintaining high load at the later stage is less likely, and the probability of falling load level is larger.

Looking ahead, Chen Xiaoyan pointed out that this year, the PTA industry has entered the substantive stage of the industrial restructuring. There have been more than one set of devices that have not been driven for more than a year, and the possibility of leaving the market in the future is greater. Although the overall capacity is overcapacity, the actual effective production capacity may be lower than last year's level.

In July, the PX device predicted that the overall load level would be lifted by the supply of raw materials and the supply of raw materials would be reduced.