Cotton Planting Area In Xinjiang Is Down, Cotton Farmers Subsidies Are Not In Place.

Recently, we went to the northern Xinjiang for 6 days, and passed the cotton and linen and other places of various regiments.

The exchange of large cotton growers, as the group went deep into the field, made an on-the-spot understanding of the overall growth of cotton this year. Combined with the telephone survey conducted by the author of Akesu and Korla in southern Xinjiang, the changing outline of cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2015/16 was gradually clear.

First, the decline of planting area is a foregone conclusion.

The agricultural five or six, seven or eight division and Manasi, Shawan, Kuitun, Wusu, bole and other places that we have studied, the target area's total annual planting area in 2014/15 is 11 million 820 thousand mu, the lint yield is 1 million 680 thousand tons, the new year's planting area is 10 million 150 thousand mu, and the lint yield is estimated to be 1 million 500 thousand tons.

The area decreased by 1 million 670 thousand mu, a decrease of 14.15%, and the output decreased by 180 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 10.7%.

We conducted a telephone survey of cotton growers and ginning plants in Korla and Akesu in southern Xinjiang. The area of local cotton growers in southern Xinjiang was down sharply. It is estimated that 30% of the areas in which the planting area of Korla and other places is relatively serious. The decline of the Corps is less than that of the northern Xinjiang. Therefore, we forecast the output of 2015/16 in Xinjiang based on the sample of the northern Xinjiang.

In the year of 2014/15, 4 million 600 thousand tons (including 4 million 400 thousand tons of public inspection) were expected to be exported to Xinjiang as raw cotton and 100 thousand tons as a direct sale. The estimated 100 thousand tons of non public inspection were sold. According to the model of Northern Xinjiang, we expect that the new year will be reduced by about 500 thousand tons, the total output will be 4 million 100 thousand tons, and the public inspection volume will be less than 4 million tons.

According to my telephone exchanges in the mainland of Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the area is expected to fall by 30%.

The output of 1 million 900 thousand tons in the mainland (2 million tons of lint in the mainland, if the 100 thousand tons of cotton that is not checked out in Xinjiang) and 1 million 900 thousand tons in the mainland are estimated to be 30% tons in the new year. The mainland's output will be 1 million 330 thousand tons, with a reduction of 570 thousand tons over the same period.

2015/16 is expected nationwide

The total amount is 4 million 100 thousand tons in Xinjiang and 1 million 330 thousand tons in the mainland, =543 million tons.

It is expected to drop by 1 million 70 thousand tons over the same period.

Two, local cotton and linen sales faster than the corps cotton and linen

The average sales progress in Northern Xinjiang is 81%, and the average sales progress of the regiment is 46%. The main reason is: the local sales price is relatively flexible, and in May, the loans from the agricultural development bank must be paid off, and the proportion of hand picked cotton sales is relatively high.

More than 80% of the Corps is machine picked cotton, and the regiment adopts unified guidance price, which is higher than the market price, so sales progress is relatively slow.

If we calculate the sales progress of the whole 2014/15 in Xinjiang according to the sales progress in the sample area, we estimate the inventory of Xinjiang cotton.

In 2014/15, the Corps produced 1 million 760 thousand tons (1 million 630 thousand tons of Statistics). According to the progress of 46%, it sold about 810 thousand tons and 950 thousand tons of stock.

Local cotton production 2 million 840 thousand tons, according to the progress of 81%, about 2 million 300 thousand tons of sales, inventory 540 thousand tons.

The total Xinjiang total: output 4 million 600 thousand tons, has sold 3 million 110 thousand tons, stock 1 million 490 thousand tons.

This data and released inventory of 2 million 120 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton in the monthly report of the end of April turnover showed that at least 600 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton only realized the inventory pfer of the ginning plants and traders, and did not really digest.

Three. Cotton subsidies for 2014/15 are not in place.

The target area of our research, the Corps generally reflected that the subsidies for 2014/15 were basically in place. However, the subsidy of local cotton farmers was uneven, with an average subsidy of 1.5/KG. Compared with the target price of 19800, it was expected to make a difference of 1 yuan /KG and a difference of 2500 yuan / ton.

Therefore, it has dampened the enthusiasm of some cotton growers.

(according to the lowest cost of 2000 yuan / mu, the average yield per unit area of seed cotton 270KG/ Mu is a break even point. If the cost of seed production per mu is calculated at 2200 yuan per mu, the yield per mu of 300KG/ Mu is a break even point.

Four, the cotton quality of cotton picking in the new year needs improvement of the whole process management capability.

In this survey, the price of the machine picked cotton in addition to the price factor is also related to the short staple rate and the three wire problem.

In 2014/15, the cost of machine picking was far lower than that of hand picked cotton. The machine picked cotton of the Corps has reached over 80%, and the number of individual divisions has reached more than 90%.

However, the downstream mills have lower acceptance rate for the short and three yarn problems of the machine picked cotton. Because the need for cotton distribution is relatively stable, the demand for cotton picking is better than that of the three wire control. This is the problem of mismatch between supply and demand. Therefore, the quality of the machine picked cotton in a rush for the new year needs special attention.

At present, the eight division and the seven division have begun to attach importance to the whole process management of the whole process of planting and processing, but there is still a certain gap between the quality and quantity of the downstream mills.

Five. 2015/16 will be cautious in purchasing cotton seeds in the new year.

In the year of 2014/15, the cotton growers in the corps and local governments were subsidized, but due to the acquisition of the backbone enterprises, the short-term cotton prices rose during the 9~11 months.

The excess lint processing capacity and the short-term resource grabbing of cotton ginning plants resulted in the initial purchase price of seed cotton generally more than 6 yuan /KG, but until the real sales period, the average grade three cotton was generally below 13000 yuan / ton, and more than 70% of 2014/15 cotton ginning plants were in deficit.

Therefore, it is widely expected that in 2015/16, the cotton ginning mill will cautiously purchase to avoid repeating the same mistake.

The author believes that this is based on lessons learned this year, if supply and demand have changed.