China'S Hot Money Outflows Hit A New High, And Scientific View Of Capital Flight

The balance sheet of the first quarter of 2015 released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange last week showed that China's capital and financial account deficit was 78 billion 900 million US dollars in the current period.

For the key data of this market, the Bank of France pointed out that the "net errors and Omissions" in China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to -802 billion dollars, and the annual calculation reached -3200 billion US dollars, equivalent to 3.5% of China's gross domestic product last year.

Some foreign media pointed out that China's hot money outflow was the highest in the first quarter of this year. This capital outflow is directly reflected in the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar.

However, in March this year, the safe publication column pointed out that the scale of errors and omissions in China's balance of payments has been within a reasonable range, and the negative value of this figure can not be equated with the actual scale of capital flight.

On the one hand is the cautious wording of the Chinese government. On the other hand, foreign investment banks and overseas media are worried about China's financial stability. What should we look at?

In fact, it is difficult to make simple right and wrong judgments. As in the international exchange market of March this year, many foreign financial institutions tried hard to empty and short the renminbi. Although the US dollar index rose from 95 in the end of 2 to 100.15 in mid March, the renminbi in the spot market remained relatively strong. In the second week after the dollar index climbed, the RMB continued to rise by 663 basis points in the first three trading days, an increase of more than 1%. After that, most foreign institutions were forced to close their positions and suffered heavy losses.

some foreign capital Although the organization is very versatile in the international market, it often falls in China.

So, what should we think of the omission of the data that has not been comprehensively counted? Overseas institutions Frequent "alarm bell" for the risk of China's financial reform, is it the negative conflict or the essence?

There is no denying that from the point of view of figures, there are indeed some "in China". Capital running away Signs. For example, since January this year, the rate of purchase of foreign exchange by banks has been rising, while settlement of foreign exchange has continued to decline. In terms of figures, the balance of foreign exchange sales in 1-4 months amounted to US $94 billion 500 million, which was more than half of the full year surplus of US $156 billion 400 million in 2014. Besides, in April this year, financial institutions increased their foreign exchange reserves by 32 billion 396 million yuan. In the same period, the surplus of foreign trade and imports reached US $34 billion 135 million. At the same time, the difference between the two countries' currency exchange rate was at least 6 times, and the outflow of capital or capital could not be denied.

The reason may be that the "one belt and one way" strategy led by the Chinese government at present and in the future will probably lead to lagging or loss of data statistics in the process of actively guiding the RMB going out, which is easily reflected in the specific figures as the increase of net errors and omissions. At the same time, some central enterprises and state-owned enterprises do not exclude certain problems that need improvement in the actual data reporting and statistical operation.