The Trend Of Upstream Raw Materials To Meet The Turning Point Is Still Unclear.

According to the interview, it has been increasing for more than 1 years due to the increase in supply and the downturn in demand. Price The dyestuff intermediates, which have doubled over 5 times, are expected to usher in a turning point, ending the upward trend and driving down the price of dye in the lower reaches.

* there are many signs that the acid market has shifted and the future is hard to rise again.

Unlike previous optimism and affirmative attitudes, the industry is generally pessimistic about the acid Market and believes that prices have reached the peak. They said that on the one hand, the huge profits of sour acid (priced at 150 thousand ~16 yuan per ton, while the cost is about 2~3 million yuan / ton) will attract the release of new capacity. On the other hand, the current high price is also a deterrent to the downstream.

A Wuxi acid trader told Da wisdom news agency that at present, the price of HIC acid was about 150 thousand yuan / ton (the market quoted 165 thousand yuan / ton), but the market demand was weak. "Compared with last year, the off-season is earlier this year".

In this regard, Zhejiang Jihua sales staff agreed, saying that compared with the same period last year, the HIC market is indeed lighter, "H acid supply tension has also eased." He also said that Zhejiang Kyrgyzstan group has begun to pick up new orders, after which the company has been struggling to meet old orders. Zhejiang Ji HUAWEI, one of the three largest manufacturers of HA in China, has the existing capacity (20 thousand tons of design capacity and 10 thousand tons of annual output), accounting for about 20% of the total capacity of the market.

Another factor that will affect the supply structure of HIC market is Jihua's new acid plant in Jiangsu. According to traders, Kyrgyzstan ha new plant (design capacity of about 3000 tons / month) was installed last week, and trial run. In this regard, the company's opinions vary, only to indicate that the possibility of being formally put into operation during the year is still greater, but even if commissioning is put into production, the output will not immediately have a substantial impact.

In addition, the above acid traders said: "now some small capacity is being released, and the tide products they produce are cheaper than those produced by factories such as Chu Yuan and Hubei, and many factories will use them."

Although it is generally expected that the price of HA will hardly rise again. But the industry also said that when prices will fall, we need to see the resumption of production in the late Ming Dynasty in Jiangsu.

Jiangsu Ming Sheng is a subsidiary holding 70% of 002440.SZ. Prior to this, Jiangsu Ming Sheng launched a 6~8 month technical renovation project, which completely stopped the production of H acid and had an impact on the market supply of HA. The company expects the technical transformation to be completed in October. Like Zhejiang Ji Hua, Jiangsu Ming Sheng is also one of the three largest manufacturers of HIC in China. The annual output of HIC is about 20 thousand tons, accounting for about 40% of the total domestic output.

H acid is mainly intermediate for producing reactive dyes, accounting for about 30%~50% of the cost of reactive dyes. The production of disperse dyes also requires H acid, but the dosage is small. The rising price of dye intermediates represented by H acid has increased the price of dyes, making it the star chemical product in 2013. And benefit from the rise in dye prices, leading enterprises in Zhejiang Longsheng (600352.SH) and intercontinental shares have also achieved substantial growth over the past year.

* low peak season and other factors interwoven, dyes will depreciate or lag behind.

Dye and the upstream acid and other intermediates are closely related to each other. The summit of the acid price will undoubtedly form a certain pressure on the price of dyes, making it difficult to rise or even fall. However, analysts believe that dyestuff will be in the second half of the year, the concentration of dye industry is high and enterprises are generally more sensitive to price rise, while the intermingling of factors such as relatively slow price reduction may make the trend of dyestuff in the later stage more tangled, and the price quotation is relatively lagging behind.

At present, the dye is in the off-season, the market demand is weak, plus the downstream need time to consume inventory, so the market is temporarily in the "vacuum period". Since the price increase of disperse dyes in mid and late 4 months, and reactive dyes in mid May, there has been no large-scale price increase. In 2013 1~4, there was a monthly increase in the price of dyestuffs. There was no increase in prices in 5, 6 and September, and 7, 8 and November were the climax of the price increase.

"Now the market is mainly waiting for the second half of 7 and August quotations, then autumn. clothing The demand will come up. " Insiders said.

At the same time, it was also pointed out that even if the dye was cut, the expected range would be relatively limited.

Prior to this, the vice chairman and Secretary General of the China Dyestuff Industry Association, Tian Li Ming, also told the great wisdom news agency that during the past 20 years, the global dyestuff industry was transferred from Europe and America to Asia.

"But now, after more than 20 years of transfer, global Dyestuff industry It has been concentrated in three countries in Asia: China, India and Korea. At the same time, after years of production and sales, the market has been relatively stable, so the industry needs to restore the reasonable profit margin before. " Da Limin said. He also said that the dye industry is expected to develop in the direction of high profit margins and high added value in the next 3~5 years.