PTA Factory Maintains Low Load, Supply And Demand Keep Tight Balance.

At present, the PTA plant starts at 68%, and the downstream polyester industry starts at 84%. The PTA and polyester start up rate belongs to the high scissors difference, and PTA is in a state of consumption.

From this perspective, the main logic of this PTA price drop is not that the supply and demand side is out of the question, but the drop in the cost side.

From the late supply and demand, in order to compete for

Yisheng, Hengli and Zhuhai BP and other major domestic PTA plants will maintain a high rate of opening. The 4 million 400 thousand ton PTA device of Xiang Lu petrochemical company can not be opened in the short term by the aromatics explosion of upstream Tenglong, but once the restart is in the late stage, it will be the "black swan" incident in the PTA supply market, and the PTA supply side is still sufficient.

From the polyester production profit and inventory level, polyester has been able to maintain its highest load in three years.

However, the recent Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate dropped two percentage points, June terminal

There is a weaker expectation.

I believe that in the short term

Futures prices fell 600 yuan / ton, came to the 5000 yuan / ton integer pass, later it has overshoot rebound may be, and does not rule out polyester downstream downstream season before the last wave of replenishment operation to drive raw material PTA price rebound time extension.

However, from the point of view of PX- polyester supply and demand, the restart of the PX device will result in an increase in supply, and the demand for polyester at the terminal will turn pale. The profit of PX will still be squeezed in the off-season.

Therefore, in the medium term, the weakening of crude oil is expected and the PX profit squeeze process is not over yet, PTA still has room to fall.

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