Short And Short Market Consolidation And Wait-And-See Quotation Basically Stable

Overnight crude oil and early morning futures are not good. Today's polyester and short market is mainly on the sidelines. The quotations of manufacturers are basically stable. The mainstream of Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market is reported to be 7850-7950 yuan / ton.

Today's Fujian

The quotation is equally stable. The mainstream quotation of 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market is short of 7800-7950 yuan / ton, and the atmosphere of the morning inquiry business has dropped significantly compared with yesterday.

Shandong, Hebei market short and short quotation is stable, 1.4 direct spinning polyester short mainstream newspaper 7900-8000 yuan / ton to send, the actual turnover can be negotiated, manufacturers confidence in the future is weak, shipping intention.

The price of yarn in Changyi market is weak and stable.

Price maintenance, the overall volume of investment is not large, 32S mainstream 12500 yuan / ton near.

Afternoon PTA futures closed down 66 points, showing weak, no good boost, downstream after last Saturday and yesterday's replenishment, short-term demand or return to rigid demand, polyester and short again increased resistance greater resistance, or stable trend of weakness.

Later, attention should be paid to crude oil, PTA futures and polyester and downstream cotton mill maintenance.

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Although textile enterprises occupy large funds, they mostly reflect the smooth flow of funds, and they can get lower interest rates in local banks and rural credit cooperatives.

In addition, enterprises also reflected that the phenomenon of credit arrears decreased significantly. At present, enterprises do not give money or delivery.

This also reflects the pformation of enterprise capital.

The direct subsidy policy continued to be implemented and the cotton planting area decreased.

In March this year, the state announced that the direct subsidy price for the new year's Xinjiang target was 19100 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton compared with last year.

The mainland is expected to continue in accordance with last year's subsidies, that is, the subsidy amount is 60% of Xinjiang's subsidy and the upper limit of subsidy is 2000 yuan / ton.

In recent years, cotton yields have continued to decrease, labor costs have increased, and cotton planting areas in the mainland have continued to decrease. Xinjiang has also cut down more than 10% of its area under the task of reducing the planting area.

Cotton planting area has dropped sharply this year, with a drop of about 20% and output has also declined.

In the next year, the national output is estimated to be between 5 million 200 thousand and 5 million 500 thousand tons, and there is no possibility of a larger supply gap in the next year.

The difference between inside and outside cotton prices has narrowed, and textile enterprises have improved.

The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is narrowed, and the impact strength of imported yarns is weakened.

Although the products of large textile enterprises are not substitutable with foreign products, the low price of raw materials also reduces the cost of production.

At the same time, the price difference between cotton and alternative raw materials has been shrinking, which has also increased the amount of cotton used by some non cotton textile enterprises.

Cotton prices are rising.

First, it is not only the reduction of cotton planting area in China, but the cotton planting area of the United States and India is also in a decline state.

Second, last year, the domestic cotton market has reached the largest inventory in history. From next year, the new inventory cycle will start.

Third, next year, the government may continue to impose strict control over import quotas to match the sale of State Cotton stores.

Fourthly, the profits of downstream textile enterprises are resumed, and SMEs have more chips to compete with foreign enterprises.

Under the combined effect of the above factors, the general direction of cotton market is upward.

However, the selling pressure of national cotton can not be ignored. In the later stage, cotton prices will resonate with the selling price, showing a ladder like trend, and the center of operation will gradually increase.

In terms of futures contract operation, we can gradually arrange more than 1601 and 1605 contracts in the long term.

1509 the contract is subject to the selling pressure of the national cotton store. If it is sold in the range of 13000 yuan to 13500 yuan / ton, the price of the 1509 contract can hardly rise sharply.

However, the cost of its bottom support is more obvious, before entering the month of delivery, prices are not likely to fall sharply.

Arbitrage, the central line can try to throw 1509 contracts to buy 1601 contract reverse operation. With the differentiation of the two contracts, the price difference between the two parties is expected to further expand.