Pressure On Cotton Enterprises To Repay Loans: Combed Yarn And High Spun Yarn Orders Declined.

Recently, Akesu, Korla, Bachu and other places of 2128 (2129), 3128 (3129) level of supervision of the price of the goods were reduced to 13200-13400 yuan / ton, 13000-13200 yuan / ton, but the mainland cotton enterprises inquiry and order is still very negative, spot trading is not active.

According to some cotton enterprises in southern Xinjiang, there are still some 300-500 cotton liners stored in some cotton mills before the end of June. On the one hand, the cost of short-term motor freight rises, the railway box cars are tight, the transportation pressure of Xinjiang increases, on the other hand, the pressure of lending banks to increase lending pressure is rising, and the repayment period is long, which leads to the difficulty of expanding.

According to investigation, as the lower reaches textile mill , Garment factory The order of combed yarn and high spun yarn has declined, coupled with the strong anticipation of the state departments concerned to launch the national cotton store in July. Since mid June, enquiries for hand picked cotton and high-grade cotton pickup have shown a decline in different ranges, and some cotton spot markets have been sluggish. Cotton spinning The procurement staff also postponed the purchase, and some of them even returned to Urumqi or the mainland.

It is also known that before the end of June, the cotton planted early in Xinjiang entered the flowering stage, and its overall growth was better than that in the same period in 2013 and 2104. Due to the large growth of long staple cotton planting area in Akesu and Korla areas in southern Xinjiang, the contract and renting of the cashmere ginning factory were more active, which made a sharp contrast to the "fine birds" in the fine cotton cotton ginning factory.

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In the current market environment, we will analyze whether our cotton purchase and storage policy is reasonable. The cotton purchase and storage policy formulated by the state is designed to increase the income of cotton farmers and stabilize the market price of cotton. This policy seems reasonable, but it has only played a role in raising cotton prices, and has not played a stabilizing role. We bought the cotton at a high price and sold it to the enterprises at a high price. The enterprises bought high priced cotton, which eventually led to the sale of the products. This policy even protected the cotton farmers from abroad.

Now, the national cotton store is losing money to sell, and it is the money of the state finance and the taxpayer's money. This money is mainly the tax paid by industrial enterprises and commercial enterprises. Farmers basically have no taxes. Intuitively speaking, textile enterprises receive tax and supply cotton farmers, and textile enterprises buy cotton farmers' cotton at high price. This is extremely unfair. The result is that cotton farmers have made profits, but textile enterprises are losing money. Our 20400 yuan / ton has collected 98% of China's cotton, and the textile enterprises will have to buy high price for you. If you lose the money, 17250 yuan / ton will be sold to the enterprises, which is still the highest price in the world. How can the products produced by the textile enterprises sell? Our textile enterprises can not use the cheap imported cotton very much, how can they survive? China has always been an important textile exporter, and it has not been a little competitive in the past few years. China's textile enterprises will be forced or shut down, or support or run away from China and run abroad to run factories. Fortunately, this policy has been cancelled, and we will not talk much about it.

But this year, we also encourage cotton farmers to increase their planting area and output with the subsidy of target price. I think this is a continuation of the wrong policy. The basic principle of economics is that commodity prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Serious oversupply is bound to lead to a fall in prices. A simple analysis of supply and demand in China can illustrate this point. Data show that the demand for cotton in China is more than 9 million tons per year. I think the statistics need to be discussed. According to my calculation, it should be the number of national cotton reserves and the quantity of imported cotton, which is the demand for domestic cotton, because the state stores purchase 98% cotton annually, and the domestic market has no circulation of cotton, only about 1000000 tons of annual dumping and about 2000000 tons of imports, which are less than 4 million tons, which should be the annual demand. Another algorithm can also draw a similar conclusion: if our demand is really about 9000000 tons per year, then the annual import volume of about 2000000 tons plus about 6000000 tons per year can just meet domestic demand. So where is the national cotton store of about 6000000 tons per year? It is obvious that the data of domestic cotton demand about 9000000 tons is not true, and the actual demand should be below 4 million tons.

Oversupply is already an indisputable fact. In China, there are 13 million tonnes of cotton stored in the State Reserve, which accounts for 60% of the total annual cotton demand in the world. Demand is so small, inventory is so large, plus the annual increase of about 6000000 tons of cotton, it can be said that the contradiction between supply and demand has reached a very serious level. Therefore, the policy of stimulating production with target prices is also wrong. It will cause China's cotton price to become the lowest in the world, and cotton growers or countries will suffer huge losses.