Experts Say Monetary Policy Is Experiencing An Observation Period.

The central bank is in charge of the newspaper article: no interest rate cut or reduction is possible this month.

The central bank's financial times today quoted experts as saying that monetary policy is in the wait-and-see period, and whether it will continue to sell and how to launch it depends on the real economy.

The article also pointed out that foreign exchange earnings of financial institutions have been increasing for second consecutive months, and the motive force for further releasing liquidity seems to be weakening.

Zhao Qingming, a member of the financial times expert group and an expert on international financial issues, also said that there might be no big moves in the near future. This month there has been no possibility of lowering interest rates or dropping rates. The central bank may continue to observe the effects of previous policies and measures.

As far as market expectations are concerned, the liquidity of the banking system is abundant and the urgency of reducing the accuracy is lacking.

Expert: monetary policy or experiencing observation period

In June 23rd, the open market operation continued silence.

So far, the central bank has suspended over the past several months in the open market reverse buy back operation.

In addition to suspension

It is learnt that not long ago, the central bank directed partial repo to some agencies.

Just as the Central Bank continues to suspend reverse repurchase, the market's recent divergence in anticipation of the trend and future operation of monetary policy has emerged.

"At present, some agencies in the market are expected to reduce interest rates and cut interest rates in the near future. It is also possible that the monetary policy will remain stable in the coming year as the economy is stabilizing and the policy of the early stage is gradually developing.

Another analysis is that the current monetary policy is in the wait-and-see period, whether to continue to sell, how to launch, it also depends on the situation of the real economy.

Analysts from Huaan Securities said, "I personally prefer third views."

According to the latest data released by the central bank, the foreign exchange financing of China's financial institutions increased by 32 billion 200 million yuan in May, which has been increasing for second consecutive months in the near future.

The growing trend of foreign exchange also alleviated the liquidity gap in the market, and the impetus for further release of liquidity seems to be weakening.

"Since the first half of this year, whether or not the funds that have been cut down or cut interest rates have been or are entering the real economy will take some time to observe. Whether we need to increase the intensity of monetary policy operation remains to be seen."

The Huaan securities analyst further said.

At the same time, the analyst also said that the main problems that should be paid attention to in the current monetary policy include: first, the financing cost of China's real economy is relatively high, and monetary policy is further reduced.

In terms of cost, we need to focus on our efforts. Secondly, despite the pressure of steady growth, our country is also facing the demand for structural adjustment. Monetary policy should be tighten and moderate instead of expansionary policies. Once again, the current global economic and financial situation is complex, and the task of strengthening liquidity management is arduous.

For recent monetary policy operations, our reporter has contacted many experts and asked them to talk about their own views respectively.

"According to the latest economic and financial data released in May, the recent signs of economic stabilization have increased, and it is expected that the latter policy will remain stable."

Bank of China [-1.25% Fund Research Report] (4.80, 0.08, 1.69%) Zhou Jingtong, senior researcher at the Institute of international finance, said that the effect of early monetary policy needs further verification.

Zhao Qingming, a member of this group and an expert on international financial issues, said: "there may not be any big moves in the near future. This month there is no possibility of lowering interest rates or dropping rates.

According to the main macroeconomic data in May, the central bank may continue to observe the effects of previous policies and measures.

As far as market expectations are concerned, the liquidity of the banking system is abundant and the urgency of reducing the accuracy is lacking.

Of course, the three quarter still has the possibility of reducing interest rates and lowering the accuracy.

On the whole, we expect the interest rate cut to come to an end. There will be at most one interest rate cut in the second half of this year. "

They also share similar views.

Investment macro research expressed the view that by the end of 6, it is not expected to cut rates and cut interest rates before the end of the month.

At this stage

The focus is more clear, not that the total amount is not enough to relax, but that monetary policy pmission channels need to be dredging.

In the past six months, the growth rate of M2 has dropped to below 11%. The impact of the decline in the speed of money circulation is more noteworthy.

China Minsheng Bank [-4.08% Fund Research Report] (9.81, 0.49, 5.26%) chief researcher Wen Bin said that since the beginning of the year, the government has issued a series of steady growth policy results, and PMI continued to pick up in May. It has been higher than 50% for three consecutive months. Meanwhile, the real estate 100% housing price ratio has also been shifted from negative to positive, volume has been enlarged, and the property market has stabilized.

With the approval and approval of infrastructure investment projects, the role of infrastructure investment in steady growth will be further enhanced.

However, in May, the CPI growth rate dropped from last month, and the PPI growth continued negative, reflecting that the growth momentum of the economic pition stage is still insufficient, and monetary policy still has room for relaxation.

Wen Bin said that after two "comprehensive and directional" reduction, the liquidity of the financial system was loose, the excess reserves of commercial banks increased, the trade surplus in May expanded to nearly $60 billion, and foreign exchange increased, which would squeeze further room for reduction.

However, in the long run, with the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates at the end of the three quarter or the fourth quarter of the year and China's further efforts to increase capital account liberalization, the pressure on domestic net outflow of funds may be even greater, which means that we still need to reduce operation to further release liquidity.

Huang Jianhui, President of China Minsheng Banking Research Institute, also has expectations for further reduction in the future.

Huang Jianhui expects that 50 to 100bp will be lowered in mid and late 7.

The main reasons are: first, the downward pressure on the economy continues; the two is the high cost of financing; three, the growth rate of M2 is far below the target value proposed by the government work report, and there is still room for policy operation.

Experts also predict that in addition to the total policy, monetary policy will continue to intensify directional operation in the second half of the year.

In this regard, Morgan chase economist Zhu Haibin expects that the central bank will expand directional easing measures, such as PSL, SLF, MLF and reloan, and strive to solve the special problems in the economy, such as limited financial capacity in infrastructure investment, inadequate support measures for the development of emerging industries, and

And the potential liquidity fluctuation in the opening of capital account.

"Generally speaking, the keynote of" prudent monetary policy "has not changed. The central bank has formed a variety of monetary policy regulation methods, including different varieties. Besides refinancing and open market operations, there are SLO (short-term liquidity adjustment tools) and so on. The operation period basically achieves short term, medium term and long-term coverage.

Especially in coping with the current complex macro environment, there can be diversified combinations of choices and innovations. "

Relevant personages said.

Experts stressed that under the joint action of various factors, relying solely on loosening monetary policy will have strong limitations in reducing social financing costs and stimulating effective market demand and steady growth.

Wen Bin said that in the future, interest rate liberalization should be accelerated, efforts should be made to improve Shibor formation mechanism and loan pricing mechanism of commercial banks, so as to ensure effective pmission of monetary policy objectives.

In addition, in the long run, monetary policy alone is not likely to continue to drive economic growth up. In the process of economic pformation, new economic growth points still need to be found.

At the same time, fiscal policy and related industrial policies should also play an active role in adjusting the economic structure and actively coordinate with monetary policy so as to achieve the best macroeconomic control effect.