The Impact Of Greece's Withdrawal From The Euro Zone Is Immeasurable.

　　 How big is Greece's exit from the eurozone?

Once Greece has a disorderly debt default or even withdraw from the euro zone, International creditors The huge debt and loan losses are most direct and will further blow up the integrity of the euro area and the process of European integration, and the EU's political centripetal force will be weakened. In addition, the euro International reserve currency Status will also be further shaken.

The Greek government announced on the 29 th that in order to avoid the collapse of the banking system, the banks of the country will cease business and capital controls from that day. The country's decision to withdraw from the euro zone in July 5th was further increased by Greece's decision to hold a referendum on the draft agreement proposed by international creditors. Once Greece is out of the euro zone, the relevant countries, the euro area and the whole of Europe will suffer great financial, economic and geopolitical problems.

Greece will expire 1 billion 550 million euros of IMF in June 30th. In from July 10th to 20th, Greece needed at least 6 billion 500 million euros of funds to repay international creditors' loans and perform other financial obligations. In June 27th, the euro zone finance ministers' emergency meeting decided to refuse to extend the Greek debt relief agreement due at the end of the month. If there is no international relief, Greece will be trapped in the situation of no money to pay its debts. Under such circumstances, the Greek government will face a dual track currency or issue its own currency option, which means that Greece will withdraw from the euro area.

Once Greece has a disorderly debt default or even quit the euro zone, the huge debt and loan losses of international creditors are the most direct. Judging from the composition of Greek debt, the European Union accounts for about 60%. Data show that of the 321 billion euro rescue funds hitherto lent to Greece, about 80 billion euros came from the German national finance. Although German losses are relatively high, some countries will be hit more seriously. According to a study, according to the comparison between default losses and total economic output, the degree of economic damage in Germany is only seventh in the euro zone countries, while Slovenia, Malta, Spain and Italy, which are not so strong in economic strength, are more seriously injured.

Since the outbreak of the European debt crisis, a sense of alienation in the euro area has spread among member countries, and the trend of "suspicion of Europe" and "anti Europe" has been fermented, especially in southern European countries. Once Greece is out of the euro zone, it is expected to further strike a blow on the integrity of the euro area and the process of European integration. EU leaders' so-called "European solidarity" will become empty talk, and the EU's political centripetal force will be weakened. Specifically, on the one hand, it is possible to produce a domino effect, triggering the withdrawal of other Member States and bringing the risk of euro zone disintegration; on the other hand, the rules of its permanent accession to the euro area will be destroyed, and the subsequent accession to the euro zone will probably be another side.

Over the past period, the European version of quantitative easing monetary policy The euro exchange rate has gone down again and again, and the political turmoil in Greece has exacerbated the panic selling of the euro, and the major central banks of the world are continuing to reduce the proportion of Euro reserves. Once Greece is out of the euro zone, the euro's position in the international reserve currency will be further shaken. Especially if Greece and Greece face serious crises, the EU and the ECB will be unable to help them tide over the difficulties, which will create a bad precedent. In the future, once another member country falls into an economic or political crisis, the financial market will immediately question the willingness and ability of the European Central Bank, the European Union and the core members of Europe to safeguard the integrity of a single currency, and even take the opportunity to make waves. At that time, the euro area may face more serious crises.

On the whole, the EU and the European Central Bank have set up a series of coping mechanisms to deal with the debt crisis. Once Greece is out of the euro zone, it is expected to be eurozone. financial system Economic recovery will have a greater impact, but its destructive power should still be able to bear. However, if Greece is to quit the euro zone and become a "failed state", its impact on the process of European political and economic integration and international geopolitics is immeasurable.