The Short And Short Market Will Fall Down, Or The Manufacturers Will Reduce Production.

Overnight oil prices and early morning futures are weakening.

Continue to fall down, Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D direct spinning polyester short market mainstream reported 7400-7500 yuan / ton factory, the deal can be negotiated.

Today, Fujian polyester and short manufacturers offer weak stability. 1.4D's direct spinning polyester and short market mainstream offer 7250 yuan / ton short delivery, cash flow for a long time loss, manufacturers have more or less reduced production.

Shandong,

Polyester short quotation is mainly weak, 1.4 direct spinning polyester short mainstream newspaper 7400-7500 yuan / ton to arrive, paction negotiation concessions generally, after market confidence is generally insufficient.

The price of yarn in Shandong Changyi market is mainly in decline, and the amount of money owed by manufacturers is much higher.

The price is down, the market is sparse, and the mainstream 32S is near 12000 yuan / ton.

The closing of the futures market will have a big negative effect on the future, and we need to pay attention to the oil situation tonight.

Attention should still be paid to crude oil, PTA futures and polyester and downstream cotton mill maintenance.

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It is widely expected that Asian maintenance PX devices will resume production after June, and PX prices will fall.

However, in June, basically, the resumption of Asian PX installations was far from anticipated. The second line of South Korea's 800 thousand HC and the 800 thousand tonnes of PTA of Singapore's Jurong aromatics plant were not resumed as scheduled.

Although China's Fu Jia Dahua, South Korea's HC line 380 thousand tons and South Korea's Ssangyong 900 thousand tons of equipment resumed production, but the production capacity is less than expected, PX prices did not appear to be expected to fall.

PX factory reemployment is not positive and has a direct relationship with the current poor profit level.

Due to the strong price of naphtha, the difference between PX and naphtha oil price has not been drawn up. The production of PX with naphtha has always been in the state of capital preservation or slight profit.

Worse still, factories that directly processed PX with MX have made significant losses. Since May, the price difference between PX and MX has been hovering between 100 and 120 yuan / ton interval, which is far from the theoretical price difference of 150 yuan / ton guarantee line.

Ningbo CICC PX device has been affecting the market nerves, and its production plan has been stranded at the end of June. The latest news is that it will not start until mid July until August.

In the short term, if the profit level does not improve, PX supplies will not increase again, and PX prices will remain strong.

Downstream polyester demand has already arrived in the off-season, polyester overall start up a downward trend.

At present, the construction has dropped from 84% to 85% in early May to 78% to 79%, but the decline of the market has reflected the bad news to a certain extent.

Due to the dispersed and relatively small capacity of the polyester plant, the single unit shutdown will not have a substantial impact on the market trend.

At present, the most uncertain trend in the PTA industry is crude oil.

Under the negative impact of OPEC's crude oil production, Iran's expected increase in crude oil exports and the expected US dollar interest rate increase, the probability of crude oil falling is increasing, but the above bad ones, especially the latter two, will take some time.

Long term crude oil is empty, but it does not rule out high oscillation in the short term.

On the whole, the market has long-term negative factors, but short term costs support.

The price of PTA will remain oscillating before crude oil price changes substantially.

At the same time, we need to pay attention to the changes of large plant installations such as Yisheng and Hengli.

In the absence of hope for the return of Xiang Lu, Yisheng and Hengli have already accounted for 60% of the production capacity currently, and the increase of capacity concentration means an increase in the price influence. Therefore, the impact of the future big factories on the price trend of PTA will increase significantly.