First Half Of The Industry Loss, Regenerated Fiber Market Downturn When To Rest?

The energy saving, environmental protection and development prospect of recycled fiber industry is very difficult at present. The economic performance of chemical fiber industry released by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association in the first half of 2015 showed that since the second half of last year, due to the continuous downturn in crude oil prices, recycled fiber products were squeezed by the sharp fall in prices of native products, and profits were impaired, and the industry lost in June.

Then, will the short period of market downturn affect the development enthusiasm of regenerated fiber enterprises? What are the reasons for the loss of the industry? What is the development prospect of the recycled fiber industry?

In the first half of the year, the price of recycled products was "down and down".

Speaking of the market of the regenerated industry, the first thing to talk about is the raw fiber, and the most typical one is polyester.

Take polyester filament as an example. Since the first half of 2015, the international crude oil price volatility has obvious influence on the polyester filament market. The price of polyester filament industry fluctuates significantly with the price of raw materials. The downstream market has not improved substantially, and the domestic polyester filament market has further self-regulation.

Data show that in January 2015 ~6 months, the average price of domestic polyester filament products was lower than that of the same period in 2014, and the average price of POY 150D/48F was 7853 yuan / ton, which was 19.44% lower than that of 9413 yuan / ton in the same period last year. The average price of DTY 150D/48F was 9268 yuan / ton, down 17.17% from 11190 yuan / ton in the same period last year, and the average price of FDY 150D/96F was 8918 yuan / ton, which was 9.26% lower than that of 9829 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Industry analyst Zhang Kunzhe pointed out that in the first half of 2015, polyester filament Market trend Basically, it can be divided into three stages: the first stage is the first quarter, and the overall market trend basically extends the weak downward trend in 2014. It is weak finishing. The second stage is the beginning of the two quarter. After the explosion of PX factory in Gure Petrochemical Company, the price of polyester filament industry is rising passively. The third stage is 5~6 month, and the market is in the off-season, and the price keeps dropping. Since June, the downstream operation rate of polyester filament has been generally insufficient. The procurement is basically a rigid demand. The contract is mainly based on contract goods, and the polyester factory has begun to stop and repair.

The price trend of raw fiber has a direct impact on the quotation of the regenerated industry. The price of the regenerated industry has been depressed since last year. The price gap between the two has greatly narrowed, and the profit space of the regenerating industry has been compressed repeatedly, until there is a loss.

MDN data show that from January 2015 to June, the price of recycled hollow products decreased from 8500 yuan / ton in January to 7500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.76%. Since June, three dimensional hollow quotes of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Sale Continue to fade, Ningbo Dafa took the lead in slipped 300 yuan / ton, followed by manufacturers to follow up. Although the profits of three-dimensional hollow products are relatively large relative to other products, the cash flow of three-dimensional hollow enterprises has been gradually decreasing since this year.

Over the same period, the price of the reproduced products has dropped from 7200 yuan / ton in January to 6600 yuan per ton, or 8.33%. As the market continued to slack in the first half of this year, regenerated cotton production enterprises were in a state of difficult operation.

In terms of regenerated polyester filament, the highest price of POY 150D appeared at the end of 4 this year, the price was 7700 yuan / ton ~8200 yuan / ton, and at the end of 6, the price dropped to 6800 yuan / ton. Although recycled polyester filament enterprises have made a profit in the short term, they are still in a state of deficit for a long time, especially in the near future.

In the first half of 2015, the price of regenerated flakes decreased, and the frequency and amplitude of oscillation were more obvious than those in the first half of 2013 and the first half of 2014. According to the statistics of China textile net, in the first half of 2015, the price of regenerated filament yarn dropped by 650 yuan / ton to 5400 yuan / ton ~5500 yuan / ton ex factory price, and the regenerated textile 3d white piece accumulated about 700 yuan / ton to 5300 yuan / ton delivery price. The regeneration of the large white sheet dropped by 800 yuan / ton to 4900 yuan / ton, and the recycled spinning green piece accumulated about 500 yuan / ton to 4500 yuan / ton delivery price.

Industry analyst Ren Xiaoyan believes that the reasons for the obvious decline in the price of reclaimed flakes in the first half of the year are two: first, the indentation of the original product, and the two is the explosion of the Gure petrochemical plant in April. The most fundamental reason is that the price of recycled bottle has been close to fall.

This trend has continued since July. In July, the recycled chemical fiber market showed a clear downward trend. Among them, the price of recycled POY dropped 600 yuan / ton ~700 yuan / ton all month, and the price of 1.5D high strength imitation large chemical product dropped 400 yuan / ton ~500 yuan / ton; the price of recycled three-dimensional hollow and 2-D hollow products also dropped 400 yuan / ton ~500 yuan / ton.

The prices of the main products such as primary polyester and other products are obviously decreasing, and the prices of recycled products are falling all the way. The price difference between recycled and normal fibers has obviously decreased and the price advantage of recycled fibers has been lost. This is an important reason for the current profits of recycled enterprises being compressed and plunged into losses. An industry insider said so.

　 High cost and low demand "double attack"

The decline in the price of products over the past six months has also surprised the industry.

Industry analyst Cao Wenting said: "the price of such a large decline is somewhat unexpected." In her view, the cause of such a price decline is that the fluctuation of crude oil price in the international market is only an inducement. The real factor is that the real economy is sluggish. The demand for textile downstream market has not been improved. The stock of manufacturers has accumulated in large quantities. The average stock of each product has reached the level of 20 days ~30 days. In addition, with the recent hot weather, the downward trend of factory load is obvious, the load of the filament factory is much less than that, and some cotton production lines have been vacant for a long time, and the overhaul rate of the hollow factories has also increased.

From a deeper level, the reason for the loss of recycled fiber enterprises is not only the reduction of the price difference of raw fibers, but also the high cost of regenerated production.

At present, in China, the raw materials of recycled fiber are mainly two kinds of bottle material and granulating material, and the cost of recycling is higher. In particular, environmental protection requirements are becoming more and more stringent. For example, it is difficult for centralized recycling of flake materials, and no odor emission can be produced for the production of granulating materials. This requires that the production links be improved and the cost increased further. "Simply speaking, the cost of producing 1 tons of recycled polyester filament is 1 times higher than that of producing virgin polyester filament." This industry insider described this.

More importantly, on the one hand, the cost is high, but on the other hand, the downstream demand has been unable to go up.

The industry insiders said that at present, in Europe and other developed countries and regions, the concept of environmental protection is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and consumers have a higher degree of acceptance of recycled fiber fabrics and clothing. Clothing made of recycled fiber is usually linked with recycle logo that has been authenticated. For example, recycled polyester fiber can be widely used in uniforms, uniforms and school uniforms, and can also be used to make top grade suits. Outdoor brand And so on.

From the production point of view, the production of regenerated fiber can be regenerated to the same quality as the original chemical fiber because it is decomposed to the molecular level by chemical method. But its outstanding feature is that materials can be regenerated repeatedly, which can reduce the use of petroleum resources and reduce waste. At the same time, the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of recycled fiber can be significantly reduced compared with raw fiber. "In the long run, the market prospect of regenerated products is broad." The industry insiders said.

Japanese Teijin is a leading enterprise in this field. Its ECO CIRCLE, a circular regeneration system centered on the technology of recycling and recycling of polyester, has been developed and recycled with more than 150 clothing manufacturers and sporting goods manufacturers all over the world. This shows that its market prospect is good.

In China, the environmental protection concept of consumers still needs to be improved, and the acceptance of recycled fiber products is still relatively limited, which is the fundamental reason for the shortage of downstream demand.

At present, the domestic regenerated fiber is in its infancy, and its products have their own limitations. Taking recycled fiber filament as an example, the products are mainly coarse denier and low F, or mostly for producing colored yarn (black). Therefore, even the products produced are mostly made up of excipients, but they can not be woven fabrics. "Domestic uncertified recycled fiber prices are low, but their use is limited, which is more troublesome." A polyester enterprise official said.

Perhaps this is another indication that its future prospects are broad. Insiders pointed out that the current trend of energy conservation and environmental protection is sweeping the world. More and more world-class sports apparel brands adopt environmentally-friendly materials. Many large international companies also use environmentally-friendly materials to make their workers' clothes. In the future, the domestic market will also develop in this direction.

　 Perhaps it is precisely because of the potential of this field that Japanese imperial people have expanded their pace towards the Chinese market.

In 2012, the Japanese company and the Seiko holding group reached a joint venture to set up a new material company in Zhejiang, introducing the chemical treatment technology of the regenerated fibers of the emperor, to recycle and regenerate the old clothes, and build a recycling system. The joint venture's regenerated polyester fiber production line was put into operation at the end of last year.

In terms of market development, ladies in the Chinese market try to cooperate with well-known brands, such as Li Ning Co sponsored 2014~2015 season CBA robe, and have applied the regenerated fiber material produced by the ladies. In addition, this year's beauty is also related to Chinese professional wear. Industrial Association To achieve long-term strategic cooperation, in order to promote the application of new materials in China's professional wear industry. According to the plan, the future beauties will also set up recycling and reusing production templates in conditional areas and professional clothing enterprises, so as to promote the scale and industrialization of products.

However, the prospects are bright, the road is tortuous, and the bright prospects do not yet know when to arrive. The hardships are tortured, but the recycled fiber industry is suffering from the loss of the whole industry.

"It's like the stock market. In the long run, recycled fiber is like a growing blue chip stock. It's worth holding for a long time. However, the sharp drop in share prices in the short term can still make people feel depressed. The key is not knowing when to continue." An industry insider regrets.