Cotton Consumption Growth Is Limited In 2015/16

According to international

The September global production demand forecast issued by the Advisory Committee (ICAC), the global cotton planting area in 2015/16 was less than 31 million hectares, down 7% from a year earlier, due to a significant decline in cotton prices in the year 2014/15.

The average output per unit of cotton in the world is estimated at 764 kg / ha, down 3% compared with the same period last year, and the output of cotton is estimated at 23 million 700 thousand tons, down 10% from the same period last year.

Cotton planting area is expected to be 11 million 600 thousand hectares, a decrease of 5% compared with the same period last year, and the yield per unit area is estimated to be 547 kg / ha, an increase of 3% over the previous year, which is close to the three year average. The output is expected to be 6 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 2% over the same period.

China's cotton production is expected to be 5 million 400 thousand tons, down 16% from the same period last year, because the cotton planting area decreased by 12% and the unit yield decreased by 5%.

The cotton planting area in the United States was 3 million 200 thousand hectares, a decrease of 16% compared with the same period last year, and the yield was slightly below 3 million tons, down 17% from the same period last year.

The cotton planting area and yield per unit area have decreased in Pakistan, and cotton production is expected to be 2 million 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 11% over the same period last year.

In the first ten years of this century, cotton prices stayed high for most of the time.

The price is quite similar, but from 2009/10, cotton prices began to be significantly higher than chemical fiber prices.

China's large-scale domestic storage and storage period, China's domestic cotton prices remained at about 144 cents for a long time, and with the end of the temporary purchase and storage, domestic cotton prices fell rapidly.

In 2014/15, cotton prices in China dropped from 126 cents in August 2014 to 98 cents in July 2015, and continued to drop to around 95 cents in August, and domestic and international spreads narrowed.

However, during this period, the price of chemical fiber also dropped and the price difference between cotton and cotton remained stable.

The high cotton prices make China's cotton spinning industry lack competitiveness.

In 2015/16, cotton consumption in China is estimated at 7 million 700 thousand tons, far below the historical high of ten million years ago.

In recent years,

The decline in production competitiveness, China's cotton consumption began to shift to the country, mainly Asian countries, this trend will continue in 2015/16.

Nevertheless, global cotton consumption is expected to grow by only 2%, or 25 million tons, in 2015/16, which is still lower than before the financial crisis because of the international cotton price higher than the price of chemical fiber.

Consumption in India and Pakistan is expected to grow by 3%, to 5 million 600 thousand tons and 2 million 600 thousand tons respectively.

Turkey's consumption is expected to grow by 5% to 1 million 400 thousand tons.

Bangladesh consumption is expected to grow by 4% to 974 thousand tons.

Vietnam has replaced Brazil as the sixth largest cotton consumer, with consumption expected to grow by 13% to 953 thousand tons.

In 2015/16, the world's cotton imports are expected to be stable at 7 million 600 thousand tons, and China's imports are expected to be 1 million 600 thousand tons, down 12% from the same period last year, declining for fifth consecutive years.

Imports from outside China are expected to grow at 6 million tons, up 1% over the same period last year, offsetting the decline in China's imports.

Bangladesh imports are expected to grow by 1%, to 972 thousand tons, and Indonesia's imports to 790 thousand tons, up 3% over the same period last year. Vietnam's imports are expected to grow at 956 thousand tons, an increase of 2%, more than five times ten years ago.

US cotton exports are expected to decrease by 9%, but they are still the world's largest exporters. India's exports are expected to be 1 million 200 thousand tons, up 21% over the same period last year.

As global cotton consumption exceeds production, the end of global inventory in 2015/16 is expected to decline for the first time in six years, to 20 million 400 thousand tons, down 6% from the same period last year.

Nevertheless, the growth rate of cotton demand is limited, which has little impact on the fundamentals.