Wu Guoping's Thoughts On The Sniping Of Funds

Today's volume is obviously magnified, which indicates that the enthusiasm for capital investment has been improved. More importantly, the trend of departure from the MACD bottom of the stock market has already been formed, and the characteristic of the bottom of the position is clearer. Combined with these two aspects, even if the stock index is repeatedly tossed about in this position, some stocks will dare to go strong. The income of this region is far greater than that of risk. Therefore, we do not need to tangle the fluctuation of stock index every day. We should pay more attention to individual stock opportunities.

In September 9, 2015, stock index futures opened up and a small Yin line was harvested. Where are the biggest opportunities for stocks?

The performance of super stocks is still a bright spot. Many stocks have been trading for two consecutive days or even three. After any wave of continuous decline, the most powerful rebound is the worst in the previous period. The reason is very simple, after a substantial decline. risk From the perspective of the capital side, it also prefers sniping. Therefore, overtaking stocks is the first wave. Rise Focus of attention.

Next, look at those super markets. Falling stocks Are there enough big quotes in the new stock market? For example, the phased nature of the market will double rapidly, and the phased parts will inevitably create a new historical high. We believe that such a situation will come again.

While continuing to participate in overtaking stocks, we must pay close attention to the emergence of the main line of the market. After all, if the market wants to continue to run well, there must be strong hot spots to unite people's hearts. This is the next most profitable sector. Even if we do not participate in the main line, we should pay close attention to their wind direction.

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No matter whether it is promotion, derogatory or stability, no central bank of any country will make any commitment on the issue of currency exchange rate. However, we, especially the central bank, often issue views on the RMB exchange rate. I think this is very inappropriate and should even be considered a mistake.

Why? First, the exchange rate actually uses the currency of the country to calculate its price in the local currency. Therefore, the exchange rate of the local currency is not the same as that of the single country. It depends on the level, strength and weakness of the opponent's national currency. For example, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is rising, depreciated or stable, which is not only determined by China's monetary policy, but also depends on the US monetary policy. When the US puts money into large quantities and the US dollar devaluation is very strong, if China does not take the same level of easing policy, then the renminbi will appreciate. On the contrary, just like now, the US monetary policy needs to be shifted. The US dollar appreciation expectation is very strong. But if China's monetary policy has no reason or no conditions to follow the Fed's interest rate increase, then the RMB should depreciate. This is the inevitable rule determined by the international monetary system at present, and it is not the kind of thing anyone wants to do.

Second, the choice of monetary policy of any country must focus on its own economic situation, and it should mainly adjust the strength of domestic economic domestic demand. China is a developing country, and developing the domestic demand economy has become a national strategy. Therefore, monetary policy should be more conducive to the growth of domestic demand. In particular, China's downward pressure on the economy is increasing. Now, more relaxed monetary policy is almost the only option. That is to say, the probability of China's monetary policy going against the US monetary policy is almost 100%, then the corresponding dollar appreciation and RMB depreciation should also be 100% probability? I think so.

For this reason, I firmly oppose the commitment of the Central Bank of China to "RMB exchange rate stability". Because stability means China is bound to stick to monetary policy. When it is loose, it does not dare to relax. This is equivalent to saying that China's monetary policy is not based on less needs, but more on the issue of exchange rate and more on external demand factors.

Of course, it is quite understandable that at the moment, it is very difficult to amend the past "exchange rate overshoot". On the one hand, the domestic economy's demand for loose monetary policy must lead to the devaluation of the RMB. On the other hand, we must ensure that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will not change into an exchange rate attack, resulting in a currency crisis. You know, in the process of overvaluation of RMB, a lot of involvement in foreign debt is the most desirable thing for business operators to do. It can not only satisfy the demand for liquidity, but also increase arbitrage and arbitrage income in the process of RMB appreciation. It is also true that if the RMB depreciates, all foreign exchange financing costs will rise correspondingly, which will obviously lead to the dilemma of the central bank. On the one hand, we should reduce the financing cost of domestic debt free enterprises with loose monetary policy and low interest rate policy. On the other hand, we have to consider that domestic enterprises with foreign debts will raise the financing cost due to the aggravation of the external debt burden.