Negative Interest Rates Are Widely Distributed.

In the case of negative interest rates, bank deposit is the least cost-effective.

But statistics show that as of the end of July, the balance of RMB deposits in China has reached 134 trillion, an increase of 13.4% over the same period last year, of which more than 50 trillion yuan of household deposits and nearly 40 trillion of corporate deposits are not all fools. Maybe the negative interest rate (whether nominal or real) will become normal in the past five years. What people are looking forward to is that fiscal policy is making efforts, such as lowering taxes and various taxes and taxes related to people's livelihood.

The question is why will the bank deposit increase in July, knowing where the bank does not agree with the bank? The stock market, or the property market? In my view, in the author's view, in July, the deposit increase (2 trillion and 170 billion increase in the month), a large part of the stock market capital backflow bank, the IPO stop, the margin reduced by more than 1 million, and the redemption of the new fund is more than 1 billion, the more than 2 billion will be returned to the bank again? Now, the interest rate, the house selling positive, the property market may absorb a little, at least in Shanghai, the majority of families have housing, and some two or three sets, and a large surplus of local property outside the first cities.

Not long ago, I went to Weihai, and a friend who bought a house in Weihai as a "migratory bird" told me that it was difficult to sell the family if he wanted to sell it. Even if he had to sell it, he would lose it.

How much more can the property market absorb? As for the stock market, the funds for those returning banks are mostly risk averse ones, so it is easy to escape from the stock market crash and get back easily.

So why do I say that negative interest rate is a false proposition?

For one thing, what people call negative interest rate refers to the August CPI (2%) compared with the one-year deposit rate (1.75%), while the CPI in 1-8 months is 1.4%, and the interest rate is positive.

More importantly, the CPI in August did rise to 2%, but PPI fell to -5.9%, and the scissors difference between the two reached an unprecedented 7.9 percentage point.

As we all know, CPI and PPI respectively represent the price index of consumption and production.

For ordinary people, the price of consumer goods is rising, but for producers, the prices of their products are down, and they have fallen for 42 months.

For consumers, since it is a negative interest rate, it should be raised; and for producers, about 6% of the loan interest rate has been too high, if it is higher again, there will be a number of enterprises bankruptcy.

Second, the reason why I say the negative interest rate is a

It is because there are two kinds of negative interest rates: one is nominal interest rate, that is, the difference between the official CPI and the deposit interest rate; the two is the real interest rate, which refers to the nominal interest rate lower than the inflation rate.

Compared with the one-year deposit rate, the CPI of 1-8 months is 1.4%.

It is still true; however, with the growth rate of M2 12-13% at present, compared with the growth rate of the real economy (GDP) 7%, the difference between the 5-6 points is closer to the actual inflation rate. If we add these 5-6 points, even if CPI can not reach 2% in August, our real interest rate will still be negative. More directly, we haven't had a positive interest rate for so many years, unless you buy more than one house, enjoy the gold market for more than ten years, or you are a stock speculating master.

According to research reports, China has experienced 4 times since the 90s of last century.

The periods were in October 1992 ~1995 November, November 2003 ~2005 March, December 2006 ~2008 October and ~2012 year.

Too far, do not say, take nearly two times, that is, 2006-2008 years, 2010-2012 years, are CPI and PPI too high.

For example, in February 2008, CPI reached 8.7% and PPI reached 6.6%; and in June 2011, CPI and PPI were also up to 6.4% and 7.1% respectively. These two times were all inflation, all of which were overheated.

But this time it is different. PPI is cold and CPI is not hot. Everyone knows that this is caused by a serious overcapacity in the early period of policy digestion, and according to Lou Jiwei's finance minister, it has been through five years of labor pains.