The Macroeconomic Barometer Is Not The Stock Market.

New shares (IPO) may have to be sluice, and the sale of market capitalization (some expert advice) is too much.

But it is said that management immediately denied the rumor.

(but it will come again sooner or later.

)

Because of the strong rescue of the government (very valuable), technical analysis has been difficult to accurately predict the future market.

Therefore, many people are waiting to see when to get steady and participate.

Downward pressure on the economy remains large.

Fortunately, China's stock market has always been out of sync with the economy.

China's stock market has twelve characteristics, which are very different from those of Europe, America, Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

To win over the stock market, it is necessary to know more about the characteristics of the stock market.

Similarly, the management should manage the stock market well and flourish the stock market. We must also understand the characteristics, characteristics and personality of the Chinese stock market. We should pay attention to the similarities between the stock market and the stock markets of various countries, but pay more attention to their individuality and particularity.

Otherwise, how can we copy the foreign experience and manage the stock market? How can individual investors make profits in the stock market?

It is much more risky than in China, and it is strictly prohibited in the Zhu Rongji era.

One of the characteristics is that China's stock market is not completely in sync with the macro entity economy.

Looking back at the history, the bull market in China's stock market: in 1992, the stock market fell from 1500 to more than 400 points. At that time, the macroeconomic situation was very good. After the small Pingnan patrol, all the provinces were left behind, and the provinces were encouraged by Chr (34) speech Chr (34).

Later, both of them jumped from more than 400 points, and also the government's efforts to save the market.

It has nothing to do with the economy.

In May 19, 1999, the stock market rose rapidly from 1050 to 1700-2245, and a rare bull market appeared rapidly.

At that time, the economy was not very good, and Asia's financial crisis still had a lot of damage. It had a great influence on China (Zhu Rongji, then prime minister, was very surprised at the time.

Under such circumstances, China's stock market took a big hit, rushed to more than 1700 first, fell back, and rushed to 2245 after the Spring Festival next year.

It is said that the Political Bureau of the Central Committee met and decided to start the stock market.

In turn, save the real economy.

But so far, no official documents have been seen, nor how much money the state and banks have invested in it. According to Professor Song Guoqing, if we have, we should invest hundreds of billions of dollars.

From 2245 points,

After a few years down to 998 points, by 2005, the stock market began to walk cattle; this time was related to the real economy; first, the yuan (exchange rate) began to appreciate, and began to appreciate from 1:8.28 to 1:6.2, and began in July 20, 2005.

Once the appreciation of the local currency, a large number of foreign exchange inflows, foreign exchange increased, and domestic liquidity becomes loose.

The stock market will go up.

Two, the stock market has been down for several years.

It's only 998 points, and it should go up.

Three, most importantly, under the leadership of Shang Fulin, it began to tackle the problem of intractable disease, the reform of "split share structure", the basic plan was "10 to send 3", the A shareholders agreed that the state shares and the legal person shares came out (liquidation), while the state stock legal person shares compensated for the A shares (10:3 shares) of the circulating stocks; and when the fashion Folin was smart, it allowed the 10:3 shares to be listed soon, and the state and legal person shares gradually circulated in batches in 1-2 years.

In this way, there is a time window for the A share market to go up.

It's 1-2 years of easy time.

Four, at that time, the 70 large and medium cities in northern Guangzhou and Shenzhen were rising and selling well, and it promoted the 42 industries such as steel, cement, lime and furniture.

As a result, the stock market rushed from 998 to 6124, which is not yet measurable (October 2007).

This is the only bull market that is closely related to the real economy.

But then it was quickly suppressed by harsh monetary policy.

In October 2014, the Daniel market, which was hit from 1800 points to 5100 points in China's stock market, had nothing to do with the real economy.

All sectors of the real economy are very depressed, with tens of thousands of enterprises and many companies in a state of loss and profit.

And this downward trend remains unchanged for several months.

However, the stock market once rose, and the volume of pactions has been released for many times.

What is the reason? All walks of life can not be done.

It is a loss, so it is better to bet on the stock market; at that time a lot of businessmen came to be a big bet, and more than 1 trillion of the volume was.

In addition, it is also a big reason to allow investors to finance and distribute funds. People are borrowing money by 2 or even 4-5 times leverage.

The stock market went wild to the 5100 point.

This bull market and

It has nothing to do with it.

But it has great relationship with the financing allocation.

In short: China's stock market is not a barometer of macro-economy. It is sometimes related to the real economy and sometimes irrelevant.

Therefore, people should not fully watch the real economy running the stock.

There are many reasons for this strange situation: (1) RMB can not be freely convertible; (2) there are few domestic investment channels; (3) A shares are much more expensive than B shares; (4) split share structure and so on.

Therefore, we must have a clear understanding of this.