Rebound Stock Test Securities Companies Optimistic About The Fourth Quarter Market

From 3133.13 to 3386.70, after the national day, the Shanghai composite index rebounded more than 10%, reaching 333.92 points. After a continuous rebound, the stock index also gradually approached the 60 day moving average. A number of brokerages said that the fourth quarter of the market can still be expected, but the 60 day moving average pressure on the short-term rebound test deserves attention. Short term can catch overfall rebound, focusing on the safety margin, and entering the value investment range.

The current round of rebound is similar to the market evolution before and after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year. It is the pre - check inventory and the allocation of capital, resulting in a full adjustment of the market, followed by a full reduction before the festival. The difference is that in the first half of the year, we all value expectations and stories. Under the promotion of margin trading and over-the-counter capital allocation, the stock market quickly generated the money effect to drive a batch of incremental funds into the market, pushing the market to a limit. After the sharp fall in the second half of the year, we all value the performance and believe in the fact of certainty.

There will be a rebound of 15% magnitude by the end of December. Although the overall market growth is not very large, the difference between individual stocks will be more obvious. Individual stock Expected to rise about 50% of the increase, the effect of money will be gradually presented, but the demand for stock selection capabilities increased significantly in the first half. Industry level recommends media, environmental protection, new energy and other valuable growth stocks. On the theme, it is suggested to pay close attention to the possible investment opportunities in the 13th Five-Year plan, with the emphasis on agricultural modernization, big data, industrial Internet, state-owned enterprise reform, Tibet and Northeast China, and medical care for the elderly.

From the perspective of market nature, this is not the basic feature of intermediate rebound, but also the property of overfall and rebound. Because the US dollar rate hike is still a probability event, and the domestic monetary policy has not yet reached the real stage of quantitative easing. Technically, after the breakthroughs of the box, the focus of the transaction is expected to move to 3250-3500 points, of which 3500 is the intersection of 60 antennas and annual lines, and is also the second gap of the market in August 24th. It is expected that this point will have strong technical pressure. In addition, the 3428 point is 4006 points down to 2850 points, half of the sub position, the same pressure. After the 60 day moving average of the gem station, the upper part of the gem is a complete box with larger pressure.

In the medium term, we are concerned about the possibility of investment clocks turning to recovery. from Central Bank The recent "double down" move has taken more care of industrial deflation and sharp fluctuations in asset prices. If the trend is confirmed, it is not ruled out that the risk-free interest rate will fall further, which will enhance the stock market valuation. In addition, the recent housing policy has loosened, and infrastructure investment has been launched again. From various signs, monetary and fiscal policies have entered a "double loose" stage, and the market is expected to shift from recession to recovery. At the same time, stabilizing the economy will also help stabilize the RMB exchange rate forecast. It is recommended to pay attention to varieties with margin of safety. As the valuation of market sectors and sectors is quite different, investors can catch up with overshoot and rebound in the short term.

　　 index After a month of operation in the early shock zone, the trend was broken up and the rebound trend was established. The main force in the current stage of rebound is the growth enterprise market, the motive force behind it is the recovery of risk preference, and the drop in risk free rate of return is only auxiliary logic, because the relative growth rate of the main board is limited. Clear support for the rebound logic has three, one is no macro negative; two is the US interest rate hike is postponed, the emerging market risk assets are benefited; three is the trend of strengthening under the effect of money making. Short term attention should be paid to the risk of callback after rapid inflation. In the medium term, there will still be room and time for rebounding, but the high probability is not more than 4000 points. Unless the monetary policy is super loose, it will break through. IPO will not be restarted in the short term. The market will repeatedly hype the stock that has been repeatedly hyped up during the bull market. Before the macro profit comes, "we can continue our leading edge". We must treasure it.