The Central Bank'S Open Market Held A 25 Billion Yuan 7 Day Reverse Repurchase Operation On Tuesday.

The central bank launched a 25 billion yuan 7 day reverse repurchase operation in the open market on the 20 day. On the same day, there was 40 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired. Based on this calculation, the central bank's open market reopened 15 billion yuan a day.

Market participants pointed out that, from a fundamental point of view, the overall economic performance of the fourth quarter is expected to remain stable, but in response to the downward pressure on the economy, it is expected that the central bank will continue to maintain a loose monetary policy, and the possibility of reducing or reducing interest rates is still possible.

In September, the excess reserve ratio of the banking system dropped by about 0.2-0.3 points in August, which remained roughly at 1.6-1.7% level. This is the lowest level since this year. Considering that there is still a financial pressure to pay in the late stage, the policy neutral hedge liquidity and supplementary excess reserve fund is a big probability event, and is expected to be October.

It can be expected.

Comply with the policy of falling quasi policy landing, money market 7 day repo rate is expected to continue on the basis of the previous platform downward, the target closer to 2%, the overall long-term interest rate will still be a breakthrough.

10 years in a year

Target location to 2.7-2.8%, 10 years to see the position of financial bonds to 3.2-3.3%.

The central bank website announced today that it launched interest rate bidding on Tuesday (October 20th).

The paction volume is 25 billion yuan, the duration is 7 days, and the winning rate is 2.35%.

Compared with last Thursday's (October 15th) operation, the central bank's reverse repurchase period and interest rate remained unchanged, with trading volume reduced by 25 billion yuan.

Wind data also showed that this week there will be 90 billion yuan in the central bank's counter repurchase expiry, and the maturity amount will be reduced by 80 billion yuan compared with last week.

Some market participants pointed out that this week there is a tax impact on enterprises, the central bank or maintain the open market, a certain degree of liquidity.

In October 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's GDP in the three quarter was 6.9%, which fell below the 7% threshold.

In view of the three quarter economic performance, many industry insiders believe that the overall economic operation remains stable, but the next monetary policy will face many tests.

The people's Daily published an exclusive analysis of the economy and society, and said that in response to the downward pressure on the economy, fiscal and monetary policies could be more powerful.

If foreign exchange funds continue to decrease, there will be a 1 or 0.5 percentage point reduction in the deposit reserve rate during the year.

But if there is no economic hard landing risk or major market risk, there may be little room for cutting interest rates during the year.

Traders revealed that the central bank today (October 20th) will carry out 25 billion yuan counter buy back operation.

Overnight, money market is stable.

Overnight interest rate remained unchanged at 1.90% yesterday, 7D up 1bp to 2.44%, 14D interest rate down 3bp to 2.71%, 1M downlink 1bp to 3.06%.

In terms of volume, volume of 7D declined significantly and 14D turnover increased slightly.

Yesterday, the RMB exchange rate depreciated.

The US dollar on shore spot exchange rate rose sharply from 72bp to 6.3601, and the US dollar to offshore RMB spot exchange rate rose sharply 118bp to 6.3703, and the offshore onshore price difference narrowed by 46bp.

Zhang Jun, director of macroeconomic research at Morgan Stanley Securities, said that in view of the pressure of capital outflow and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the central bank may not want to use too much interest reduction policy to reduce this too strong policy tool. At the same time, the overall policy orientation has also changed to loose monetary policy and "positive fiscal policy". Therefore, the central bank is more concerned about the essence of easing, and hopes to weaken the policy signals of easing policy to the market.