Economic Interpretation: Distinguish The Short-Term Rebound From The Longer Term Configuration.

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Now we all see a lot. As one of the few empty voices on the market, Hong Hao believes that not all funds can do six to eight weeks of trading.

In any band, the so-called "multi space" is relative. You need to know the opponent's disk and the paction time.

In 2010, Hong Hao said he also liked call four to six weeks, 15%-20%'s short wave band, but the problem is that small rebounding is hard to get big money, and the frequency of change is also very misleading.

For the A shares, Hong Hao thinks that in November or the last high point, if we make money in the first half of the year, we should stop worrying about it now.

And the linkage between China and Hong Kong makes it difficult for Hong Kong stocks to get out of the independent market. Now, it is a high inflation rate, depending on how short you are.

Rather than over entangling death or death, it is better to put the short term.

It's better than a longer term configuration.

For example, the number of GDP is not so significant at present. The subdivision data, such as steel and cement price, power generation and freight volume, are all downward. Only the GDP figure is better than the expected 6.8%, which is relatively good news.

But this raises a contradiction. On the one hand, although the market thinks the economy is going down further,

There is little left for it; on the other hand, if the economy surprises in the four quarter, it will reduce the probability of stimulus.

There is also a trading view that until now in the last week of October or the first week of November, because of the overbought early stage, the Fed did not raise interest rates and the Chinese government introduced stimulus policies, the market had a feeling of reviewing the massive stimulus plan in 2008, such as the misreading of heading seven trillion last week.

However, in 2008, China's economy dropped from 15% to 6%, and the shopping malls were still empty compared with the world cup. Now the Chinese economy is so bad compared with that time. Logically, it is difficult to introduce a large-scale stimulus plan. Although the short-term bear market rebound and profits have gone through bull market rebound, short-term trading views can not be proved by long-term view.

In the big direction, the fundamentals are slowing down and investment can not keep up. Although the infrastructure has offset some negative factors, the market can support the four quarter, but the uncertainty of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates will also perplex the market in December. Meanwhile, the risk of China's debt capital chain is also constantly emerging, and this dimension risk is hard to know beforehand.