Winter Rebound And The Evolution Of Slow Cattle: There Must Be A Rebound Stage.

Judging from different time points, we can draw different conclusions.

From the perspective of the fourth quarter of this year, this is a typical oversold rebound.

In the last quarter, although the Shanghai Composite Index fell by about 40%, more than 2000 listed companies and gem index fell by more than 50%.

When the government takes strong measures to prevent the stock market from falling, the stock price must have a rebound period.

The market will come from the fourth quarter.

To further develop, and continue the spring bull market launched in the spring of 2014.

In short, we do not consider next year, we will do well in the four quarter.

Looking at the rebound from this angle, Shanghai Composite Index,

It is impossible to reach a new high this winter.

The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 4000 point interval, and the gem index reached the 3000 point interval, which should be a reasonable and rational interval.

Most of the stock prices rebounded to about 30 percent off of the peak position.

This time period is characterized by the fear of the stock market, and the stability of the market needs the government's visible hand to control it.

For example, the collapse of the stock market on Wednesday is another 1000 shares.

At that time, ICBC, Everbright Bank and two barrels of oil were suddenly pulled up by huge sums of money.

This action is almost the same as last quarter's stock market crash, but it can get better results.

It tells investors that the government is still stabilizing the stock market and is determined to remain unchanged.

This is an important guarantee for the sustained rebound in the fourth quarter.

Because the market can only be said to rebound at present, it also needs the government to escort, and the resulting volume and stock market are characterized by a higher rebound than the motherboard. The stocks with themes will take the lead, Internet high technology, industry 4, Disney, healthy China, nuclear power and so on.

In particular, special themes plus reorganization and small cap stocks will lead to a new high, leading the market to rebound.

And blue chip, cyclical industry, still dominated by stability, it is difficult to rise sharply.

Because at this stage turnover is hard to innovate.

There is no big volume support, big share market continues to rise difficult.

Shanghai's recent SOE reform, the Disney and FTA sector speculation is the stock market speculation this winter market model.

Since it is a rebound market, will the next year be a low innovation after the bounce? It is too early to predict the market price next year.

However, it is predicted that next year we must review the long stretch last year.

If we start from more than 2000 points last year, the current annual increase of more than 3000 points will reach 50%.

On the whole, the Shanghai Stock Index started in May last year and gradually evolved into mad cow in June of this year, and then forced the adjustment of the stock market crash to turn mad cow into a slow cow.